- Bullish: Ukraine’s barley export potential for MY 2026/27 is forecast at 2.5 million tonnes, a 25% year-on-year increase, supported by elevated carryover stocks.
- Bearish: Large carryover stocks and a 5% decline in projected production signal weak demand and potential price pressure, keeping the near-term outlook neutral to slightly bearish.
Ukraine Barley Export Outlook
APK-Inform projects Ukraine’s barley export potential at 2.5 million tonnes in MY 2026/27, up 25% from the previous March forecast. The revision is driven primarily by anticipated high carryover stocks from the current season, rather than stronger production or demand.
Carryover barley stocks at the end of MY 2025/26 are forecast at 2.14 million tonnes, 45% higher than in MY 2024/25. This sizeable inventory overhang will be a key factor shaping export flows and pricing in the upcoming season.
Production and Supply Dynamics
The gross barley harvest in MY 2026/27 is preliminarily forecast at 5.1 million tonnes, a 5% decline from the 5.4 million tonnes expected in MY 2025/26. As a result, the projected increase in exports largely reflects inventory liquidation rather than underlying production growth.
Weak domestic consumption and slower-than-expected export pace in MY 2025/26 have contributed to the accumulation of carryover stocks, amplifying supply-side pressure into the next marketing year.
Current Export Performance and Key Buyers
| Metric | Value | Change Year-on-Year |
|---|---|---|
| Barley exports (Jul–Feb 2025/26) | 1.3 million tonnes | -36% |
| Share of projected 2025/26 export potential | 53% | n/a |
| Forecast barley exports (MY 2026/27) | 2.5 million tonnes | +25% |
| Forecast carryover stocks (end MY 2025/26) | 2.14 million tonnes | +45% |
| Forecast barley harvest (MY 2026/27) | 5.1 million tonnes | -5% |
| Destination | Share of Ukrainian Barley Exports (2025/26 to Date) |
|---|---|
| China | 36% |
| Turkey | 22% |
| Libya | 10% |
From July through February of MY 2025/26, Ukraine shipped only 1.3 million tonnes of barley, a 36% decline year-on-year. This volume represents just 53% of the projected export potential for the current season, underscoring the sluggish pace of sales.
China is the leading destination, accounting for 36% of shipments, followed by Turkey with 22% and Libya with 10%, highlighting continued reliance on a concentrated set of buyers in North Africa and Asia.
Price Implications and Market Outlook
Substantial carryover stocks, softer domestic consumption, and a slower export rhythm in MY 2025/26 will exert downward pressure on Ukrainian barley prices into MY 2026/27. Although the headline 25% export increase appears supportive, it reflects stock clearance rather than structural demand growth.
Traders should track Black Sea FOB differentials closely, as Ukraine will likely need to maintain competitive pricing versus Russian and other regional origins to move excess supplies. Overall, the market outlook is neutral to slightly bearish for Ukrainian barley in the near term, given the prevailing supply overhang.
Source: Market Data
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