- Soybean crush slowdown: Argentina’s soybean crushing fell to 2.72 million tonnes in January, an 11‑month low and 6.5% below last year, tightening global soy oil and meal availability.
- Tight soy oil stocks: Soybean oil inventories slid to 180,000 tonnes, 26% below a year ago, signaling potential supply constraints for vegetable oil markets.
- Shift to sunflower: Sunflower seed processing surged 78% year‑on‑year, with record sunflower oil exports and strong demand from the EU and India.
- Black Sea impact: Soybean tightness is mildly supportive for Black Sea soy and rapeseed, but Argentina’s aggressive sunflower exports increase competition and price pressure for Ukrainian and Russian suppliers.
Argentina Soybean Crushing and Exports
Argentina’s soybean processing industry slowed sharply in January 2026, with crush volumes dropping to 2.72 million tonnes from 2.91 million tonnes a year earlier, according to Oil World. This marks an 11‑month low for the country’s crush sector and reflects seasonally tighter domestic soybean supplies and cautious plant utilization.
The weaker crush translated into softer export flows. Soybean oil shipments reached just 0.48 million tonnes in January, around 5% below last year, while soybean meal exports declined 10% year‑on‑year to 2 million tonnes. Reports from February point to ongoing inventory drawdowns and slow processing rates, suggesting continued pressure on Argentina’s soy product export program.
Soybean oil stocks at processing facilities dropped to 180,000 tonnes by end‑January, the lowest in seven months and 26% below prior‑year levels. This tightening inventory backdrop raises the risk of supply constraints for the global vegetable oil market if crush does not recover with new‑crop arrivals in March–April.
| Item | January 2026 | January 2025 | % Change YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Soybean crush (million tonnes) | 2.72 | 2.91 | -6.5% |
| Soybean oil exports (million tonnes) | 0.48 | ~0.51 | -5% |
| Soybean meal exports (million tonnes) | 2.00 | ~2.22 | -10% |
| Soybean oil stocks (thousand tonnes) | 180 | ~243 | -26% |
Surge in Sunflower Seed Processing and Exports
With soybeans in tight supply, Argentine processors pivoted aggressively toward sunflower seed. January sunflower crush jumped 78% year‑on‑year to 323,000 tonnes, supported by ample seed availability and firm global demand for sunflower products.
Sunflower meal exports climbed to a four‑month high of 168,000 tonnes in January. Over October–January, cumulative sunflower meal shipments reached 0.53 million tonnes, up from 0.35 million tonnes a year earlier. The EU‑27 remained the key outlet, taking 0.36 million tonnes (69% of total), compared with 0.21 million tonnes (61%) in the previous season.
Sunflower oil exports totaled 94,000 tonnes in January, bringing October–January 2025/26 exports to a record 0.44 million tonnes versus 0.35 million tonnes previously. India emerged as a particularly strong buyer, importing 128,000 tonnes over the period compared with 81,000 tonnes a year earlier.
| Sunflower Product | Period | 2025/26 Volume | 2024/25 Volume | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunflower seed crush (thousand tonnes) | January | 323 | ~181 | +78% |
| Sunflower meal exports (thousand tonnes) | January | 168 | n/a | Four‑month high |
| Sunflower meal exports (million tonnes) | Oct–Jan | 0.53 | 0.35 | +51% |
| to EU‑27 (million tonnes) | Oct–Jan | 0.36 (69%) | 0.21 (61%) | Share & volume up |
| Sunflower oil exports (million tonnes) | Oct–Jan | 0.44 | 0.35 | Record high |
| to India (thousand tonnes) | Oct–Jan | 128 | 81 | +58% |
Implications for Black Sea Oilseed and Meal Markets
The tightening in Argentina’s soybean complex is neutral to slightly bullish for global soy and Black Sea markets. Reduced Argentine soy oil and meal availability should offer some price support and may redirect incremental demand toward Ukrainian and Russian soybeans and rapeseed products, especially if Argentina’s crush recovery lags into Q2.
At the same time, Argentina’s aggressive shift into sunflower processing intensifies competition with Black Sea exporters in both the EU and India. Record Argentine sunflower oil and meal exports may exert price pressure on Ukrainian and Russian suppliers, particularly into the EU‑27, where Argentina has expanded its share. Traders should closely monitor March–April Argentine crush data to gauge whether the current soy tightness persists or eases with new‑crop inflows.
Source: Market Data
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