- Russian exports lag 13%: Grain shipments are running notably behind last year despite a record harvest, pointing to weaker near-term export momentum.
- Quota under-fulfillment: The 20 million tonne export quota for 2025/26 is projected to reach only about 17 million tonnes, reflecting structural and logistical constraints.
- Global oversupply pressures freight: Global grain overproduction and softer Russian domestic demand are dampening Black Sea freight demand and could pressure freight rates.
- Neutral to bearish freight outlook: Unless export pace accelerates by Q2, vessel demand on key Black Sea routes is likely to remain subdued.
Russian Grain Export Performance vs. Potential
Russian grain exports in the 2025/26 season are currently trailing last year’s pace by around 13%, even though Russia has achieved a record grain harvest. According to Vladimir Petrichenko, Director of the ProZerno analytical agency, the country’s export potential has risen to 55 million tonnes, up from just over 50 million tonnes shipped in the previous season. However, actual shipments are not keeping up with this higher capacity.
The updated forecast suggests that Russia is unlikely to fully realize its 55 million tonne export potential under current market and logistical conditions. This shortfall reflects both external market dynamics and domestic structural factors limiting the conversion of harvest volume into actual exports.
Export Quotas and Structural Constraints
For the 2025/26 season, Russia has set a grain export quota of 20 million tonnes. Based on present freight and shipping activity, Petrichenko estimates that only about 17 million tonnes will be shipped under this quota. He notes that the existing quota framework primarily favors large exporters, yet even they are not fully utilizing the allocated volumes.
The 3 million tonne gap between the quota and projected shipments indicates that issues beyond price competitiveness—such as logistical bottlenecks, operational constraints at ports, and demand-side limitations—are restricting exports. These factors are preventing Russia from translating its record harvest and elevated export potential into realized trade flows.
Implications for Black Sea Freight and Global Grain Markets
The slower export pace is neutral to bearish for Black Sea freight demand. With fewer cargoes moving than initially expected, vessel requirements are reduced, which can weigh on freight rates along key export routes. The combination of global grain overproduction and weakening domestic Russian consumption is contributing to a supply overhang that existing quotas and logistics capacity are not fully able to clear.
Market participants and freight traders should closely track export volumes through Q2. Any sustained improvement in shipping activity would tighten vessel availability and potentially support freight rates. Conversely, if the 13% deficit in export pace persists, it would confirm a structurally softer demand environment for Black Sea tonnage in the near term.
Key Quantitative Indicators
| Metric | 2024/25 (Last Season) | 2025/26 (Current/Projected) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual grain exports | Just over 50 mln t | Below 55 mln t potential | Current pace signals shortfall vs. potential |
| Export potential | ~50 mln t | 55 mln t | +5 mln t increase in theoretical export capacity |
| Export pace vs. last year | Baseline | -13% | Indicates weaker realized demand/logistics |
| Export quota | N/A | 20 mln t | Policy cap for 2025/26 exports |
| Projected quota fulfillment | N/A | 17 mln t | 3 mln t gap vs. quota due to structural constraints |
Source: Market Data
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