- Bearish for Black Sea suppliers: India’s sunflower oil imports from Russia and Ukraine fell sharply, with combined volumes down 27% year-on-year in January and further weakness across the October–January period.
- Supportive for alternative origins: Argentina rapidly expanded its share of India’s sunflower oil imports, with October–January shipments rising more than fourfold, tightening competition and pressuring Black Sea pricing.
- Stable overall vegoil demand: India’s total vegetable oil imports in October–January 2025/26 MY remained strong at 5.32 million tonnes, led by palm and soybean oil, limiting broader downside for global vegoil demand.
India Sunflower Oil Import Overview
India’s sunflower oil imports declined in January 2025, reflecting weaker demand for Black Sea origin supplies and growing competition from South American exporters, particularly Argentina.
| Period | Total Sunflower Oil Imports (India) | Change vs Year-Ago |
|---|---|---|
| January 2025 | 267,000 tonnes | -29,000 tonnes (from 296,000 tonnes) |
| October–January 2025/26 MY | 1.02 million tonnes | -0.08 million tonnes (from 1.10 million tonnes) |
Supplier Breakdown: Russia, Ukraine, and Argentina
| Supplier | January 2024 | January 2025 | Oct–Jan 2024/25 MY | Oct–Jan 2025/26 MY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | 201,000 tonnes | 167,000 tonnes | 682,000 tonnes | 498,000 tonnes |
| Ukraine | n/a | n/a | 326,000 tonnes | 211,000 tonnes |
| Argentina | n/a | n/a | 56,000 tonnes | 244,000 tonnes |
Russian sunflower oil remained India’s largest single-origin supply in January 2025 at 167,000 tonnes, but both Russian and Ukrainian exporters lost significant volume compared with the previous marketing year. In contrast, Argentina expanded its presence aggressively, lifting October–January shipments to 244,000 tonnes from just 56,000 tonnes a year earlier.
India Vegetable Oil Import Mix (Oct–Jan 2025/26)
| Oil Type | Imports (Oct–Jan 2025/26 MY) |
|---|---|
| Palm Oil | 2.63 million tonnes |
| Soybean Oil | 1.68 million tonnes |
| Sunflower Oil | 1.02 million tonnes |
| Total Vegetable Oil | 5.32 million tonnes |
Market Impact and Price Sentiment
The 184,000-tonne year-on-year drop in combined Russian and Ukrainian sunflower oil shipments during October–January underscores weakening demand for Black Sea origins in India. This is structurally bearish for Black Sea sunflower oil, as Argentina’s fourfold export growth intensifies competition and may pressure offer levels into the Indian market.
Traders tied to Black Sea supply chains should consider the risk of softer demand, possible re-negotiations on existing sales, and a shift in Indian tender preferences toward alternative origins if price spreads remain narrow or Black Sea logistics pose added risk.
Source: Market Data
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