- Exports Rising: Ukraine’s wheat exports are forecast to reach 17.6 million tons in 2025/26, an 11.5% year-on-year increase, boosting global supply from the Black Sea region.
- Production Recovery: Wheat output is projected at 23.1 million tons, up 2.9% from the prior season, supported by a 4.8% expansion in sowing area to 5.1 million hectares.
- Soft Domestic Demand: Domestic wheat consumption is expected to fall to 6.2 million tons as demographic pressures and migration reduce internal demand.
- Stable Export Logistics: Functional export corridors enable Ukraine to service key buyers in Europe, Africa, and Asia while fully covering domestic needs.
- Structural Challenges Persist: Production remains 6.2% below the five-year average, and yields are pressured by adverse weather, keeping supply risks in focus.
Ukraine Wheat Market Overview 2025/26
The Ukrainian Agrarian Business Club (UCAB) projects that Ukraine will export 17.6 million tons of wheat in the 2025/26 marketing year, an increase of 11.5% compared with the previous season. This expansion in exportable surplus comes as wheat production gradually recovers despite ongoing structural and weather-related challenges.
Production, Area, and Yield Dynamics
UCAB estimates 2025/26 wheat production at 23.1 million tons, up 2.9% year-on-year but still 6.2% below the five-year average. Farmers expanded the wheat sowing area to 5.1 million hectares, a 4.8% increase over the previous season. However, unfavorable weather conditions tempered the benefit of this expansion, with average yields slipping 1.7% to 4.5 tons per hectare.
Domestic Consumption and Exportable Surplus
Domestic wheat consumption is expected to decline further to 6.2 million tons in 2025/26. Food use is projected at 3.7 million tons, feed demand at 1.5 million tons, and seed requirements are set to fall from 986,000 tons to 825,000 tons. UCAB attributes the ongoing contraction in internal demand to territorial occupation and population migration driven by the war, effectively redirecting more wheat toward export channels.
Logistics and Export Route Stability
UCAB analysts highlight that functional export routes are allowing Ukraine to maintain stable shipment flows to core destinations across Europe, Africa, and Asia. With domestic needs fully covered by current production, logistics planners can focus on optimizing export programs for the 2025/26 season, leveraging available corridor capacity and port infrastructure.
Market Implications and Trading Outlook
The forecast points to a moderately bullish outlook for Ukrainian wheat availability on the global market. The 11.5% increase in exports enhances competition for Russian and European suppliers in traditional Black Sea and nearby importing regions. Nonetheless, production staying below the five-year average underscores that structural constraints and weather risks remain. Market participants should monitor yield developments and logistics conditions closely, as any disruption could quickly alter the balance of exportable supply and price dynamics for the 2025/26 marketing year.
| Metric | 2024/25 (Est.) | 2025/26 (Forecast) | Y/Y Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat Production (million tons) | 22.4 | 23.1 | +2.9% |
| Sown Area (million hectares) | 4.87 | 5.10 | +4.8% |
| Average Yield (tons/ha) | 4.58 | 4.50 | -1.7% |
| Exports (million tons) | 15.8 | 17.6 | +11.5% |
| Total Domestic Consumption (million tons) | — | 6.2 | Declining |
| Food Use (million tons) | — | 3.7 | Declining |
| Feed Use (million tons) | — | 1.5 | Stable/Lower |
| Seed Use (million tons) | 1.0 | 0.8 | -16.3% |
Source: Market Data
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