Key Takeaways
- Zero Export Duties Extended: Russia will maintain zero export duties on wheat, barley, and corn for shipments from February 23 (or February 25, per secondary source) through March 3, 2026.
- Moderate Price Increases: Indicative prices used for duty calculations rose slightly for wheat (to $229.9/ton) and more notably for corn (to $207.0/ton), while barley held steady.
- Competitive Black Sea Exports: The continuation of zero duties keeps Russian grain highly competitive on the global market, sustaining pressure on regional price premiums.
- Predictable Near-Term Flows: A stable duty environment supports consistent export flows through early March under Russia’s grain damper mechanism.
- Watch Corn for Future Shifts: The faster increase in corn’s indicative price could bring the market closer to levels where duties may activate in later periods.
Market Update
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture has confirmed that export duties on wheat, barley, and corn will remain at zero for the period from February 23 (or February 25, according to a secondary source) through March 3, 2026. This extension operates within the existing grain damper program, which adjusts export duties based on indicative price levels.
Updated indicative prices used in the duty calculation show modest shifts: wheat has inched up to $229.9 per ton from $228.0, and corn has risen more sharply to $207.0 per ton from $198.6. Barley’s indicative price is unchanged at $231.4 per ton. Despite these moves, price levels remain insufficient to trigger positive export duties, keeping the rate at zero for all three grains.
Under the grain damper mechanism, in place since June 2, 2021, export duties are calculated at 70% of the difference between indicative and base prices derived from contracts registered on the Moscow Exchange. The Russian government previously raised the base price for barley and corn by 1,000 rubles to 17,785 rubles per ton, effective July 25, 2025, slightly increasing the threshold required for duties to apply.
Indicative Price Overview
| Commodity | Indicative Price (Current, $/ton) |
Previous Price ($/ton) |
Change ($/ton) |
Export Duty for Feb 23–Mar 3, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat | $229.9 | $228.0 | +1.9 | Zero |
| Barley | $231.4 | $231.4 | 0.0 | Zero |
| Corn | $207.0 | $198.6 | +8.4 | Zero |
Analysis
Neutral to Slightly Bearish: The extension of zero export duties keeps Russian wheat, barley, and corn highly competitive in export markets, particularly in the Black Sea region. This sustained competitiveness is likely to cap or pressure regional price premiums, especially for alternative origins, as global buyers continue to have reliable access to competitively priced Russian grain.
The modest increase in wheat’s indicative price and the more pronounced rise in corn’s price signal some underlying firmness in export demand or tighter availability, but not yet at levels that would activate the duty under the grain damper formula. As a result, the near-term outlook remains stable: export flows should remain predictable through early March, with minimal policy-driven disruptions.
For traders and risk managers, the key variable to monitor is corn, where the indicative price has moved from $198.6 to $207.0 per ton. Continued upward momentum could bring it closer to the thresholds that would trigger non-zero duties in subsequent calculation periods, potentially altering Russia’s relative price advantage later in the season.
Source: Market Data
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