- U.S. wheat futures rallied with March CBOT soft red winter wheat up 2.29% to $205.58/ton on February 19, 2026.
- USDA projects 2026 U.S. wheat plantings at 45 million acres, with production estimated at 1.86 billion bushels and yields at 50.8 bushels/acre.
- Global wheat stocks tightened slightly to 282 million tonnes, still 19 million tonnes above year-ago levels.
- Black Sea wheat remains highly competitive in Egypt at $249-250/ton C&F for March/April shipment, undercutting Romanian wheat at $253/ton.
U.S. Wheat Futures Performance
U.S. wheat futures advanced across all major exchanges on Thursday, February 19, 2026. Buying interest was supported by fresh USDA acreage estimates and modest tightening in global wheat inventories.
| Contract | Exchange | Month | Settle Price ($/ton) | Move (cents) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soft Red Winter Wheat | CBOT | March 2026 | $205.58 | +12.5 |
| Hard Red Winter Wheat | Kansas City | March 2026 | $207.78 | +14.5 |
| Hard Spring Wheat | Minneapolis | March 2026 | $214.40 | +8.5 |
The gains were led by Kansas City hard red winter contracts, reflecting ongoing attention to Plains weather risks and demand for higher-protein wheat. Minneapolis spring wheat also firmed, though to a lesser extent.
USDA and Global Supply Outlook
The USDA’s preliminary 2026 outlook points to U.S. wheat plantings of 45 million acres and production of 1.86 billion bushels, implying average yields of 50.8 bushels per acre. These figures suggest a broadly stable supply backdrop, limiting downside risk but not signaling a major bull market on acreage alone.
| Region/Metric | 2026 Estimate / Latest | Change vs Prior Month | Change vs Year Ago |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Wheat Planted Area | 45 million acres | n/a | n/a |
| U.S. Wheat Production | 1.86 billion bushels | n/a | n/a |
| U.S. Yield | 50.8 bu/acre | n/a | n/a |
| Global Wheat Stocks | 282 million tonnes | -1 million tonnes | +19 million tonnes |
International Grains Council data show global stocks edging down by 1 million tonnes month-on-month to 282 million tonnes, still comfortably above last year’s levels. This mild tightening adds a marginally supportive element to prices without signaling acute scarcity.
European and Black Sea Wheat Pricing
European wheat markets firmed alongside U.S. futures, helped by a weaker euro that improved export competitiveness. Paris MATIF March milling wheat futures moved higher, reinforcing the broader bullish tone across the Atlantic.
| Market | Contract / Origin | Delivery / Month | Price | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris MATIF | March Milling Wheat | March 2026 | $228.32/ton (€193.75/ton) | +0.98% |
| Egypt C&F | Black Sea Wheat 11.5% | March/April | $249-250/ton | Russian, French, Ukrainian origins |
| Egypt C&F | Romanian Wheat | March/April | ~$253/ton | Approx. $3 premium vs Black Sea |
In Egypt, Black Sea origin wheat (Russian, French, and Ukrainian) priced at $249-250/ton C&F for March/April shipment remains highly competitive and sits below Romanian offers at roughly $253/ton. The pricing spread underscores sustained demand for Black Sea supplies into North Africa.
Market Sentiment and Outlook
Overall sentiment is neutral to slightly bullish for Black Sea wheat. Competitive C&F values into Egypt, stable but tightening global stocks, and supportive U.S. futures collectively underpin prices. Traders are watching upcoming USDA export sales data for the week ending February 12, with expectations in a range of 250,000-600,000 tonnes for old-crop wheat, as well as ongoing euro-dollar moves that could further shift relative export competitiveness.
Source: Market Data
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