- Stronger US crush pace: January soybean crushing reached 6.17 million tonnes, up 7% year-on-year, pushing season-to-date volumes to a record 30.5 million tonnes.
- Rising oil inventories: Soybean oil stocks climbed to 1.12 million tonnes, the highest since April 2023, reflecting softer biodiesel and HVO demand.
- Pressure on veg oil complex: Higher US output and weaker biofuel demand pose downside risks to global vegetable oil prices and Black Sea sunflower oil competitiveness.
- Competition for Black Sea meal: Expanded US soybean meal supply could intensify competition for Black Sea exporters in key import markets.
US Soybean Crushing and Inventory Overview
US soybean crushing in January totaled 6.17 million tonnes, according to NOPA data, a 7% increase compared with the same month a year earlier. Despite the strong year-on-year gain, the figure represents a modest decline from December’s 6.26 million tonnes.
From September through January, total US soybean crushing reached a record 30.5 million tonnes, surpassing the 28.4 million tonnes processed during the same period last season. The elevated crush pace underscores robust US processing capacity and sustained availability of soybeans for domestic use.
US soybean oil inventories rose to 1.12 million tonnes at the end of January, the highest level since April 2023. The stock build is linked to reduced offtake from US biodiesel and HVO (hydrotreated vegetable oil) producers, indicating a softer demand environment in the biofuel sector.
Market Impact and Black Sea Implications
Neutral to Bearish for Black Sea Soybeans: The record US crush pace suggests strong domestic processing and potentially lower US import requirements for vegetable oils and soybean meal derivatives. At the same time, the accumulation of soybean oil stocks points to weakening downstream demand from biofuel producers, which may exert downward pressure on global vegetable oil prices and weigh on Black Sea sunflower oil values.
For Black Sea soybean meal exporters, expanded US meal output raises competitive pressure in key import destinations. Buyers may gain additional leverage on pricing and origin choices, forcing Black Sea suppliers to remain competitive on both price and logistics to defend market share.
| Indicator | Period | Volume (million tonnes) |
|---|---|---|
| US soybean crush | January | 6.17 |
| US soybean crush | December | 6.26 |
| US soybean crush (season-to-date) | September–January (current) | 30.5 |
| US soybean crush (season-to-date) | September–January (previous) | 28.4 |
| US soybean oil inventories | End-January | 1.12 |
Source: Market Data
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