- Bearish: Russia’s 2026/27 wheat harvest forecast was raised to 91 million tons, increasing projected export availability to 47.5 million tons.
- Bearish: Kazakhstan’s wheat stocks are robust at 13.96 million tons, supporting regional supply and limiting upside price momentum.
- Neutral: Production and export outlooks remain preliminary and subject to weather and geopolitical risks that could tighten Black Sea supply.
Russia Wheat & Grain Outlook
The Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) has revised upward its forecast for Russia's wheat harvest in the 2026/27 agricultural year (June–July) to 91 million tons, compared with a previous estimate of 88 million tons. The export potential for Russian wheat in 2026/27 is now projected at 47.5 million tons, up from the 46.5 million ton estimate for the 2025/26 season.
IKAR now sees Russia's total 2026/27 grain harvest at 141.5 million tons, with an overall export potential of 63 million tons. These figures remain preliminary and are exposed to production risks, particularly weather and logistical factors. For context, Russia's 2025 grain harvest reached 138.8 million tons, including 90.9 million tons of wheat, according to Rosstat.
| Metric | 2025 Season | 2026/27 Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Wheat harvest (Russia) | 90.9 mln t | 91.0 mln t |
| Total grain harvest (Russia) | 138.8 mln t | 141.5 mln t |
| Wheat export potential (Russia) | 46.5 mln t (2025/26 est.) | 47.5 mln t |
| Total grain export potential (Russia) | n/a | 63.0 mln t |
Kazakhstan Grain and Wheat Stocks
As of 1 February 2026, Kazakhstan's wheat stocks stood at approximately 13.96 million tons, compared with 13.83 million tons a year earlier. This includes 12.2 million tons of food wheat, 1.07 million tons of seed wheat, and 687.6 thousand tons of feed wheat. Durum wheat reserves reached 717.2 thousand tons, of which 645 thousand tons are designated for food use.
Total grain stocks in Kazakhstan amounted to 17.11 million tons, up from 16.8 million tons in the previous year. Other key grains include barley at 1.86 million tons (flat year-on-year), corn at 139 thousand tons, and oats at 198 thousand tons, underscoring a solid regional stock position.
| Commodity / Category | Stocks (1 Feb 2026) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Total wheat | 13.96 mln t | Up from 13.83 mln t y/y |
| Food wheat | 12.20 mln t | Core milling supply |
| Seed wheat | 1.07 mln t | For planting |
| Feed wheat | 0.688 mln t | For livestock |
| Durum wheat (total) | 0.717 mln t | Includes 0.645 mln t food-use durum |
| Total grain (all) | 17.11 mln t | Vs. 16.8 mln t previous year |
| Barley | 1.86 mln t | Flat year-on-year |
| Corn | 0.139 mln t | |
| Oats | 0.198 mln t |
Market Impact and Price Outlook
The combination of a larger projected Russian wheat harvest and strong Kazakh grain inventories points to ample Black Sea supply in 2026/27. Russia's export potential of 47.5 million tons reinforces its role as a dominant global wheat supplier, likely maintaining competitive pressure on international prices.
Kazakhstan's elevated wheat and total grain stocks provide an additional regional buffer, supporting a neutral to slightly bearish bias for Black Sea wheat, assuming normal weather and stable export logistics. However, any significant production setbacks or disruptions to trade routes could quickly tighten balances and shift the price outlook.
Source: Market Data
Leave a Reply