- Ukraine retains a dominant 92% share of EU sunflower oil imports despite a 21% year-on-year drop in shipped volumes.
- Total EU sunflower oil imports fell 19% to 1.04 million tonnes, tightening regional vegetable oil availability.
- Ukraine’s reduced sunflower harvest (down to 10.5 million tonnes from 13 million tonnes) constrains processing and export capacity into mid-2026.
- Moldova and Serbia modestly diversify EU supply, holding 5% and just under 2% market shares respectively.
- UFOP highlights sunflower as an economically attractive, input-efficient alternative crop amid tight grain markets.
EU Sunflower Oil Import Overview
EU sunflower oil imports declined notably in the current marketing period, reflecting constrained raw seed availability and shifting oilseed processing patterns. Between July 1, 2025 and February 1, 2026, the EU imported 1.04 million tonnes of sunflower oil, down from 1.28 million tonnes during the same period a year earlier.
Ukraine remains the dominant supplier, shipping approximately 0.95 million tonnes and accounting for 92% of EU sunflower oil imports. This volume is 250,000 tonnes lower than last year’s 1.2 million tonnes, underscoring how closely EU supply is tied to Ukrainian production and export capacity.
Supply Structure and Market Shares
Beyond Ukraine, Moldova has strengthened its foothold in the EU market, securing around 5% of total sunflower oil import volumes and posting year-on-year growth. Serbia holds third place with just under 2% market share, though its shipments remain materially below last year’s levels.
| Supplier / Metric | 2024/25 Volume (Jul 1–Feb 1) | 2023/24 Volume (Jul 1–Feb 1) | Change | Market Share 2024/25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total EU Sunflower Oil Imports | 1.04 million tonnes | 1.28 million tonnes | -0.24 million tonnes | 100% |
| Ukraine | 0.95 million tonnes | 1.20 million tonnes | -0.25 million tonnes | 92% |
| Moldova | n/a (approx. 5% of total) | n/a | Increased share | 5% |
| Serbia | Just under 2% of total | Higher year-on-year | Lower volumes vs. last year | <2% |
| Ukraine Sunflower Harvest | 10.5 million tonnes | 13.0 million tonnes | -2.5 million tonnes (-19%) | n/a |
Fundamental Drivers
The core constraint on exportable sunflower oil is Ukraine’s smaller sunflower seed harvest. Production dropped 19% year-on-year to 10.5 million tonnes from 13 million tonnes, reducing feedstock availability for crushers and, in turn, limiting refined oil shipments to the EU and other buyers. This reduction has contributed to tighter global vegetable oil balances and supports a firmer price environment in the near term.
Parallel to sunflower, Ukrainian processors have sharply increased rapeseed crushing, with volumes reported at 1.8 times last season’s level. This shift indicates a pivot toward alternative oilseeds where supply is more abundant, partially offsetting domestic processing gaps but not fully compensating for the sunflower-driven export shortfall.
Farmer Economics and Crop Choices
Against a backdrop of tight grain markets, UFOP advises European farmers to reassess sunflower as an economically attractive spring crop. Sunflower typically performs well under water-limited conditions and demands lower fertilizer inputs than many competing arable crops. These agronomic advantages, combined with supportive price signals from reduced regional supply, could encourage a shift in 2026 sowing plans and alter the medium-term supply outlook.
Market Outlook
In the short term, the 19% reduction in Ukraine’s sunflower harvest and the resulting 21% drop in its EU sunflower oil exports point to a structurally tight market through at least mid-2026. This backdrop is broadly supportive for prices, especially if competing vegetable oils face parallel supply or logistics constraints.
Longer term, the picture looks more balanced. Moldova’s rising market share, Serbia’s potential recovery, and possible acreage expansion in the EU could gradually diversify supply and stabilize trade flows. Traders and analysts should closely monitor spring planting decisions, input cost trends, and weather risks to gauge whether the current tightness persists into the 2026/27 season or begins to ease.
Source: Market Data
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