Russian Wheat Exports Surge 64% in February

• February surge: Rusagrotrans raised February 2025 wheat export forecast to 3.4 million tons, up 125,000 tons and 64% above February 2024.
• Season lagging: July–January exports total 29.7 million tons, still 8% below last season’s pace.
• Buyer reshuffle: Turkey and Iran sharply increased purchases, while Egypt and Bangladesh scaled back, signaling shifting demand and rising competition.
• Market tone: Strong near-term export momentum but intensifying rivalry in key destinations keeps outlook neutral to slightly bullish for Russian wheat.

Russian Wheat Export Momentum Strengthens

Analysts at Rusagrotrans JSC revised their Russian wheat export forecast for February 2025 up to 3.4 million tons, an increase of 125,000 tons from the previous estimate. This compares with 2.07 million tons shipped in February 2024, implying a strong 64% year-on-year rise. During the first ten days of February, exports were already around 1.1 million tons, underscoring firm short-term demand.

Despite this strong monthly uplift, cumulative shipments for the 2025/26 marketing season (July–January) reached 29.7 million tons, which is 8% lower than in the same period of the prior season. The robust February pace will be critical in determining whether Russia can close this deficit as the season progresses.

Shifts Among Key Importers

Import behavior among Russia’s main wheat buyers has changed markedly. Egypt remains the top destination but trimmed imports to 6.06 million tons from 6.4 million tons amid stronger competition from other Black Sea suppliers. Turkey moved into second place with 4.78 million tons, a 134% jump from 2.04 million tons, driven by weaker domestic output. Iran’s purchases tripled to 1.8 million tons following harvest shortfalls, further supporting Russian export flows.

By contrast, Bangladesh cut its Russian wheat imports to 1.51 million tons from 2.34 million tons, diversifying toward origins in Argentina, Brazil, and the EU. Israel modestly increased imports to 1.31 million tons versus 1.08 million tons a year earlier, adding incremental demand.

Market Implications and Outlook

The upward revision to February exports points to solid near-term momentum, even as season-to-date volumes lag last year by 8%. Strong buying from Turkey and Iran, rooted in tight domestic supplies and weather-related concerns, underpins Russian demand. At the same time, Egypt’s reduced purchases and Bangladesh’s pivot to South American and European wheat highlight rising competition in Russia’s traditional markets.

Traders should watch whether February’s elevated shipment pace can meaningfully narrow the seasonal deficit and how intensified Black Sea competition shapes pricing. Overall, the balance of supportive demand from Turkey and Iran versus softer interest from Egypt and Bangladesh leaves the near-term outlook for Russian wheat neutral to slightly bullish.

Source: Market Data