- Bullish: Ukrainian feed corn prices at Black Sea ports gained USD 1-2/t week-on-week to USD 207-217/t CPT on tight farmer selling and strong buyer competition.
- Bearish: USDA’s unprecedented upward revision to U.S. 2025 corn acreage triggered a 5.4% futures drop and heightened uncertainty around official supply data.
- Volatility: Eroding confidence in USDA statistics may shift market focus toward physical Black Sea indicators, amplifying short-term price swings.
Ukrainian Corn Market Update
Feed corn prices at Ukrainian Black Sea ports continued to firm in early February, supported by tight physical supply and persistent buying interest. As of February 11, bid prices reached USD 208-217/t CPT at Greater Odessa ports and USD 207-215/t CPT at Danube facilities, according to APK-Inform. This represents a week-on-week increase of around USD 1-2/t compared with late last week.
Farmers remain reluctant to sell at current levels, effectively constraining available volumes and reinforcing upward pressure on port bids. The combination of limited selling and strong competition among exporters for nearby shipments is keeping Ukrainian origin corn well-supported in the Black Sea region.
| Location | Product | Price Range (USD/t CPT) | Weekly Change | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Odessa ports | Feed corn | 208–217 | +1–2 | 11 Feb |
| Danube facilities | Feed corn | 207–215 | +1–2 | 11 Feb |
USDA Data Revision and Market Reaction
The USDA’s latest acreage update has sparked a credibility crisis after an unprecedented revision to U.S. corn planting estimates. In its January report, the agency raised the 2025 U.S. corn harvest projection to 91.3 million acres—5.2% above the June forecast and 1.3% higher than previous estimates. This sharp adjustment is reported to be the largest discrepancy between summer and final acreage figures in USDA history.
The surprise upward revision triggered a 5.4% decline in corn futures as traders rapidly repriced expectations for U.S. supply. Former USDA Deputy Secretary Spiro Stefanou linked the data quality issues to staffing shortfalls caused by government downsizing, which disrupted data processing at the Farm Service Agency. An internal review by NASS is now underway to address the reliability concerns.
| US Corn Indicator | Previous Estimate | January Estimate | % Change vs. June |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Harvested Area (million acres) | ~90.1 | 91.3 | +5.2% |
| Corn futures price move | – | -5.4% | – |
Black Sea Market Impact and Outlook
The near-term impact for the Black Sea corn market is broadly bullish. Ukrainian corn continues to command a premium at origin, underpinned by constrained farmer selling and healthy export demand. With domestic supply flows restricted, port prices are likely to stay supported, especially for prompt shipment slots.
At the same time, controversy around USDA data increases global price uncertainty. Reduced confidence in U.S. acreage and supply statistics may encourage traders to place more weight on alternative benchmarks, including physical market signals and price indications from the Black Sea. This shift could heighten volatility in international corn futures while reinforcing the role of Ukrainian port values as a key reference point for nearby pricing.
Source: Market Data
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