- Sunflower oil steady: Black Sea sunflower oil held at $1,305/t FOB, marking the weekly high despite broader vegoil headwinds.
- Soy complex mixed: US soybean oil and beans firmed, while Brazilian and EU soybean oil values eased on ample South American supply.
- Palm oil under pressure: Malaysian palm oil FOB slipped to $1,067.14/t as buyers shift toward competitively priced soybean oil.
- Meals diverge: Brazilian soybean meal hit a weekly high, while EU rapeseed meal dropped to a weekly low amid supply overhang.
- Macro tone cautious: Record South American harvests and high global stocks cap upside for vegetable oils, keeping sentiment neutral to bearish for Black Sea origins.
Market Overview
Global vegetable oil markets sent mixed signals on February 10, 2026, with Black Sea sunflower oil holding at weekly highs while soybean and palm oil benchmarks reacted to record South American crops and shifting Asian demand. Abundant supply and competitive pricing in soybean oil continue to pressure palm oil and limit upside potential across the vegoil complex.
Vegetable Oil Prices
| Market | Location / Basis | Price (USD/t) | Change (USD/t) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunflower Oil | FOB Black Sea (Feb) | $1,305.00 | 0.00 | Weekly high; unchanged on the day |
| Sunflower Oil | CIF Mumbai, India | $1,422.85 | 0.00 | Stable alongside Black Sea values |
| Soybean Oil | US CBOT | $1,262.59 | +12.79 | Price maximum; strong futures-led gains |
| Soybean Oil | FOB Brazil | $1,179.47 | -2.69 | Slight decline despite robust export program |
| Soybean Oil | FOB EU | $1,301.74 | -2.17 | Softening amid ample global supply |
| Soybean Oil | Dalian, China | $1,185.43 | +2.53 | Asian markets firmer |
| Palm Oil | FOB Malaysia | $1,067.14 | -7.46 | Pressured by competitively priced soybean oil |
Oilseeds and Meal Complex
| Commodity | Location / Basis | Price (USD/t) | Change (USD/t) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soybeans | FOB Brazil | $421.28 | +4.28 | Weekly high; supported by strong export demand |
| Soybeans | US CBOT | $412.44 | +4.32 | Price maximum on futures strength |
| Soybeans | Dalian, China | $638.29 | +11.74 | Price maximum; robust domestic buying |
| Rapeseed | MATIF France | $580.10 | -2.75 | Modest decline amid competition from soy |
| Soybean Meal | FOB Brazil | $337.60 | +3.28 | Weekly high; firm crush margins |
| Rapeseed Meal | FOB EU | $279.50 | -14.76 | Weekly low; sharp downside move |
| Sunflower Meal | CIF France (Mar) | $261.66 | N/A | Quoted level; no change reported |
Fundamental Drivers and Regional Dynamics
At the POC 2026 conference, analysts highlighted the impact of record Brazilian and Argentine soybean harvests on global vegetable oil trade flows. Abundant soybean oil availability is prompting key buyers such as India and China to substitute away from palm oil, exerting downward pressure on Malaysian values and tightening price spreads between major vegoils.
Indonesia’s 2026 palm oil production is forecast at 49 million tonnes, down from 51 million tonnes in 2025, while Malaysia expects output around 20.2 million tonnes. Despite this modest supply tightening, heavy global oilseed production and sizable stocks are limiting any significant price recovery across the complex.
Outlook for Black Sea Sunflower Oil
The outlook for Black Sea sunflower oil remains neutral to bearish. While prices are currently supported at $1,305/t FOB and enjoy a roughly $240/t premium over Malaysian palm oil, this spread could narrow if India and other price-sensitive buyers accelerate switching into lower-cost soybean oil. Until demand improves materially or biodiesel mandates absorb more of the surplus, upside for Black Sea origins appears constrained.
Exporters in the Black Sea region should closely track import patterns in India and China, as intensified competition from South American and Chinese-origin soybean oil could gradually erode sunflower oil’s premium, particularly in more price-driven markets.
Source: Market Data
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