- Australian exports slide: Canola exports from Australia declined 15.5% year-on-year to 5.22 million tonnes in 2025.
- EU demand strengthens: EU imports of Australian canola rose to 3.22 million tonnes, reinforcing its role as the primary destination.
- Japan demand collapses: Japanese canola imports from Australia plunged 58% to 0.43 million tonnes, opening space for rival origins.
- Stocks remain heavy: Strong 2025 output of 7.65 million tonnes keeps Australian inventories elevated despite weaker shipments.
- Mixed impact on Black Sea rapeseed: Increased Australian flows to the EU are mildly bearish for Black Sea suppliers, but lost Japanese demand may create Asia-Pacific opportunities.
Australian Canola Export Performance in 2025
Australian canola exports contracted sharply in 2025, falling 15.5% to 5.22 million tonnes from 6.18 million tonnes in 2024, according to data from OilWorld (Germany). The downturn was particularly visible in the final quarter, when October–December shipments dropped to 1.3 million tonnes, the lowest quarterly volume in four years and down from 1.5 million tonnes in the same period of 2024.
Destination Breakdown and Market Shifts
The European Union strengthened its position as the dominant buyer of Australian canola, lifting imports to 3.22 million tonnes in 2025 from 3.03 million tonnes a year earlier. The UAE became the second-largest destination with 0.82 million tonnes, up from 0.67 million tonnes. In contrast, Japanese demand weakened dramatically, with imports collapsing 58% to 0.43 million tonnes from 1.03 million tonnes in 2024, reshaping regional trade flows.
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Australian canola exports (Mt) | 6.18 | 5.22 | -15.5% |
| EU imports of Australian canola (Mt) | 3.03 | 3.22 | +0.19 |
| UAE imports of Australian canola (Mt) | 0.67 | 0.82 | +0.15 |
| Japan imports of Australian canola (Mt) | 1.03 | 0.43 | -58.3% |
| Q4 exports (Oct–Dec, Mt) | 1.50 | 1.30 | -0.20 |
| Australian canola production (Mt) | — | 7.65 | +5.8% vs ABARES forecast |
Supply, Stocks and Processed Exports
Despite the export slowdown, Australian canola supply remains abundant. The 2025 harvest reached 7.65 million tonnes, exceeding ABARES projections by 5.8% and underpinning substantial carryout stocks into early 2026. At the same time, exports of processed canola products, including oil and meal, are trending higher, partially offsetting weaker raw-seed shipments.
Implications for Black Sea Rapeseed
The shift in Australian canola flows is neutral to slightly bearish for Black Sea rapeseed. Stronger Australian penetration into the EU intensifies competition in a core demand hub for Black Sea suppliers and could pressure prices and market share if Australian exports rebound in early 2026 from elevated stocks. However, the sharp reduction in Japanese purchases from Australia opens potential for Black Sea origins to expand into Asia-Pacific markets, providing a partial offset to the more competitive European landscape.
Source: Market Data
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