- Russia turns net soybean exporter: Record 2025 crop of 8.96–9.5 million tonnes flipped the trade balance as imports plunged and exports outpaced incoming volumes.
- Domestic processing expands: Soybean oil output rose 7.4% to 1.18 million tonnes and meal production grew 8.8% to 5.07 million tonnes on stronger local supply.
- Import demand collapses: Russian soybean imports fell 50–66% year-on-year to 500,000–666,000 tonnes, sharply reducing demand for South American origins.
- Ukraine prices firm: Ukrainian soybean export values strengthened to USD 425–435/t CPT port, with GM lots occasionally at USD 440/t on global market support.
- Outlook neutral to bearish: Higher Russian exports and weaker regional import demand increase competition for Black Sea suppliers despite current price strength.
Russia Becomes a Net Soybean Exporter
Russia’s soybean trade balance reversed in 2025, making the country a net exporter for the first time. Exports reached about 717,000–750,000 tonnes, surpassing imports estimated between 500,000 and 666,000 tonnes. The shift was driven by a record harvest and expanding domestic crushing.
According to Rosstat and OleoScope, Russian soybean production surged 29.9% year-on-year to 8.96–9.5 million tonnes. This expansion enabled processors to increasingly rely on domestic non-GMO supply, cutting dependence on imported GMO beans previously crushed for meal exports to Europe—a trade curtailed by EU protective duties on Russian meal.
Russian Trade Flows and Processing Dynamics
Imports collapsed from 1.4 million tonnes in 2024 to about 500,000 tonnes in 2025, including 245,000 tonnes from Brazil and 210,000–220,000 tonnes from Paraguay. Alternative estimates place imports at 650,000–666,000 tonnes, still reflecting a 50–66% year-on-year decline and removing significant buying interest from the global market.
At the same time, Russian soybean exports edged down 8.9% to 717,000 tonnes as more beans were absorbed by local crushers. Soybean oil output reached 1.18 million tonnes (+7.4% year-on-year), while soybean meal production climbed to 5.07 million tonnes (+8.8%). A 20% export duty, with a minimum of USD 100/t, capped export growth, but shipments accelerated in late 2025: September–December exports jumped 57.9% year-on-year to 300,000 tonnes, mainly to China, Belarus, and Kazakhstan.
Looking ahead, Rusagrotrans projects 2026 Russian soybean exports at 800,000–850,000 tonnes. Growth is expected to be supported by duty-free quotas allocated to Far Eastern regions, including 300,000 tonnes for Amur and 200,000 tonnes for Primorye, potentially strengthening Russia’s role in Asian markets.
Ukraine Soybean Price Update
In Ukraine, soybean export prices have firmed on global market strength rather than purely regional fundamentals. CPT port values moved up to USD 425–435/t, with occasional trades reported at USD 440/t CPT port for GM soybeans. At western land borders, demand has intensified, with DAP prices ranging from USD 420 to USD 435/t.
The price support is closely tied to global oilseed sentiment and expectations that China may purchase up to 20 million tonnes of US soybeans. However, this speculative demand remains sensitive to political developments that could quickly reshape Chinese buying patterns and, by extension, Black Sea price dynamics.
Key Market Data
| Indicator | 2024 | 2025 | Change (y/y) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russian Soybean Harvest (Rosstat) | ~6.90 mt | 8.96 mt | +29.9% |
| Russian Soybean Harvest (OleoScope) | ~7.31 mt | 9.50 mt | +29.9% |
| Russian Soybean Imports (low estimate) | 1.40 mt | 0.50 mt | -64.3% |
| Russian Soybean Imports (high estimate) | 1.40 mt | 0.65–0.666 mt | -50–53% |
| Imports from Brazil | n/a | 0.245 mt | n/a |
| Imports from Paraguay | n/a | 0.210–0.220 mt | n/a |
| Russian Soybean Exports | ~0.787 mt | 0.717 mt | -8.9% |
| Russian Soybean Exports (Sep–Dec) | 0.190 mt | 0.300 mt | +57.9% |
| Soybean Oil Production (Russia) | 1.10 mt | 1.18 mt | +7.4% |
| Soybean Meal Production (Russia) | 4.66 mt | 5.07 mt | +8.8% |
| Projected Russian Soybean Exports (2026) | n/a | 0.80–0.85 mt | n/a |
| Market | Price Level | Basis / Terms |
|---|---|---|
| Ukraine Soybeans (standard) | USD 425–435/t | CPT port |
| Ukraine Soybeans (GM, selected trades) | Up to USD 440/t | CPT port |
| Ukraine Soybeans (western border) | USD 420–435/t | DAP |
| Russian Soybean Export Duty | 20% (min. USD 100/t) | Export tax |
| Duty-Free Export Quota (Amur, 2026) | 300,000 t | Far East region |
| Duty-Free Export Quota (Primorye, 2026) | 200,000 t | Far East region |
Implications for Black Sea Trade
Russia’s move to net exporter status removes 500,000–850,000 tonnes of annual import demand from the global balance, particularly affecting South American suppliers. These volumes will need to be redirected, potentially heightening competition in other import markets.
For Ukraine, the reduction in Russian import competition could ease access to some traditional buyers, but the simultaneous increase in Russian export availability—targeting overlapping destinations such as China, Belarus, and Kazakhstan—adds supply-side pressure. With Black Sea soybeans still priced primarily off US–China trade dynamics, current Ukrainian price strength appears vulnerable. A shift in Chinese purchasing policy toward or away from US origins could quickly swing sentiment, supporting the current neutral to bearish outlook for regional exporters.
Source: Market Data
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