- Neutral to Slightly Bearish: Zero export duties on Russian wheat, barley, and corn preserved for a fourth week support abundant supply and cap upside for global import prices.
- Supportive for Russian Exports: Strong 2025 export growth from Central Black Sea regions (over $1.8 billion aggregate) underscores resilient production and logistics capacity.
- Regional Outperformance: Tambov’s 30% year-on-year export increase to $429 million, with 38 destination markets, highlights diversified and expanding trade flows.
- Price Dynamics: Stable-to-rising wheat and barley indicative prices versus softer corn signal firm demand for milling and feed grains from Russia.
Russian Grain Export Duties and Price Update
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture confirmed that export duties on wheat, barley, and corn will remain at zero for at least another week starting February 11, marking the fourth consecutive week of duty-free exports. This policy continues to bolster the competitiveness of Russian grain in global markets and encourages steady export flows.
| Commodity | Indicative Price (USD/ton) | Previous Period (USD/ton) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat | $227.4 | $227.3 | Slightly higher |
| Barley | $231.1 | $202.0 | Higher |
| Corn | $197.9 | $203.7 | Lower |
Indicative prices show marginal firming in wheat and a notable recovery in barley, while corn has eased. Combined with zero export duties, this pricing structure supports continued Russian participation across key grain segments, particularly wheat and barley, where global buyers are likely to see ongoing competitive offers.
Central Black Sea Regional Export Performance
Russia’s Central Black Sea agricultural belt continued to post strong export growth in 2025. Tambov Oblast reported agricultural exports of $429 million, a 30% increase versus 2024, driven by grain crops, meat, and processed products such as sugar, molasses, and confectionery. Exports reached 38 countries, with Uzbekistan, Belarus, and Turkey among the primary buyers, and 2025 export targets were exceeded by 34% under the “Agricultural Exports” project.
| Region | Agricultural Exports 2025 (USD) |
|---|---|
| Tambov Oblast | $429 million |
| Voronezh Oblast | Over $600 million |
| Kursk Oblast | $853 million |
| Central Black Sea Total (selected regions) | Over $1.8 billion |
Neighboring regions also showed robust performance, with Voronezh agricultural exports surpassing $600 million and Kursk reaching $853 million, making the Central Black Sea cluster a key driver of Russia’s grain and broader agricultural export profile.
Market Impact and Outlook
The combination of zero export duties and solid regional export growth reinforces Russia’s role as a major supplier in global grain markets. For wheat and barley, where indicative prices are stable or higher, Russian origin remains competitive and well-supported by infrastructure and diversified demand. For global wheat and barley importers, this backdrop is neutral to slightly bearish, as continuing duty-free exports from Russia help maintain ample supply and constrain upside price risk.
Source: Market Data
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