- Export Growth: Russian grain and grain product exports rose 6% year-on-year in January 2026 to 4.5 million tons.
- Wheat Momentum: Wheat shipments increased 18% to 2.8 million tons, reinforcing Russia’s dominant role in global wheat trade.
- Oilseed Strength: Soybean exports doubled to 128,400 tons, with soybean cake up 69% to 71,400 tons, signaling diversification beyond traditional grains.
- Emerging Markets: Exports to Cameroon jumped sevenfold, while Kazakhstan, Latvia, Kyrgyzstan, and Mongolia each tripled their intake.
- Key Buyers: Turkey’s imports rose 97%, and Lebanon and Afghanistan doubled purchases, supporting steady Black Sea vessel demand.
- Freight Outlook: Neutral to bullish for Black Sea freight rates as sustained multiproduct export flows underpin vessel requirements through Q1 2026.
Russian Grain Export Performance – January 2026
Russian grain export flows posted solid growth in January 2026, with total shipments of grain and grain products reaching 4.5 million tons, a 6% year-on-year increase compared to January 2025. The data, sourced from the Federal State Information System “Argus-Fito,” underscore resilient export activity despite seasonal winter logistics constraints.
Commodity Breakdown
Wheat remained the core of the export mix, with volumes climbing 18% year-on-year to 2.8 million tons. The oilseed complex showed particularly strong performance: soybean exports doubled to 128,400 tons, while soybean cake shipments surged 69% to 71,400 tons. Sorghum exports, though relatively small at 2,000 tons, increased fourfold, highlighting growing niche demand across the broader grain and oilseed spectrum.
| Commodity | January 2026 Volume (tons) | Year-on-Year Change |
|---|---|---|
| Total grain & grain products | 4,500,000 | +6% |
| Wheat | 2,800,000 | +18% |
| Soybeans | 128,400 | +100% |
| Soybean cake | 71,400 | +69% |
| Sorghum | 2,000 | 4x increase |
Destination Market Shifts
Destination patterns highlight rapid expansion into emerging markets. African and Central Asian buyers significantly increased purchases, with Cameroon increasing grain imports from Russia sevenfold. Kazakhstan, Latvia, Kyrgyzstan, and Mongolia each tripled their intake, pointing to deepening regional trade ties and more diversified outlet markets for Russian origin grain.
Middle Eastern demand remained robust, with Lebanon and Afghanistan doubling imports. Turkey, a traditional anchor buyer of Russian grain, raised its purchases by 97%, reinforcing its role as a key outlet for Black Sea exports and providing an additional pillar of demand for regional freight.
Market Analysis
The January data signal continued momentum in Russian grain exports, even during a period typically hampered by winter logistics. The 18% increase in wheat shipments underscores Russia’s competitive positioning in global wheat trade, supported by favorable FOB pricing structures and ample domestic supply. Strong gains in soybeans and soybean cake indicate a gradual diversification away from a purely wheat-focused export profile, adding value through both raw oilseeds and processed products.
The dramatic growth in shipments to African and Central Asian markets suggests that Russian exporters are successfully opening and scaling new trade corridors. This geographic diversification reduces reliance on traditional buyers and routes, potentially easing concentration risk and providing flexibility in freight deployment. As volumes remain elevated across multiple commodities, they are likely to support steady demand for tonnage in Black Sea loading zones through Q1 2026.
Freight Market Outlook
The overall outlook for Black Sea freight rates is neutral to bullish. Sustained export volumes in wheat, oilseeds, and by-products create a stable baseline of cargo requirements, which should underpin vessel utilization despite seasonal headwinds. Continued growth in emerging-market demand, particularly from Africa and Central Asia, may further support voyage opportunities and route diversification for shipowners operating in the region.
Source: Market Data
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