- Bullish: EU barley exports projected at 11 million tonnes in 2025/26, the highest in a decade, supported by strong feed demand from the Middle East and China.
- Bearish: Export window may narrow as French supplies decline and new Southern Hemisphere harvests offer buyers alternative origins.
- Bullish: Tight Black Sea barley availability is boosting EU competitiveness and supporting unusually firm feed barley prices.
- Bearish: Forward pricing for 2026 signals a return to historical discounts for feed barley versus malting barley and milling wheat.
EU Barley Export Outlook
Barley exports from the European Union are forecast to reach 11 million tonnes in the 2025/26 season, a 10-year high and the strongest performance since 2015/16. The European Commission recently raised its export outlook by 9%, reflecting robust feed demand on global markets and reduced competition from Black Sea origins.
According to Brent Athill of RMI Analytics, intensive feed barley buying from the Middle East and China, combined with constrained Black Sea availability, has disrupted traditional grain price relationships. Feed barley is currently trading at better levels than milling wheat and close to parity with malting barley, underscoring the weakness in malting demand and the strength of feed-driven consumption.
Export Window and Price Dynamics
The current export opportunity for Western European barley may be limited in duration. French exportable supplies are already declining, while freshly harvested Southern Hemisphere barley is expanding the range of origins available to importers. As global availability improves, buyers are likely to regain bargaining power, pressuring today’s elevated feed barley premiums.
Forward contracts for 2026 suggest that feed barley will revert to its historical role, trading at a clear double-digit discount to both malting barley and milling wheat. This points to the current pricing structure as a temporary anomaly driven by short-term supply constraints and concentrated regional demand.
Black Sea Market Impact
The Black Sea barley market impact is best characterized as neutral to slightly bearish. Limited regional availability is currently underpinning EU export competitiveness and supporting prices, but it also highlights underlying supply tightness that is not expected to persist. As Southern Hemisphere harvests advance and global feed grain supplies increase, pricing premiums are likely to compress, eroding the temporary advantage held by constrained exporters.
Black Sea barley exporters should closely monitor the pace and quality of Southern Hemisphere harvests, as well as evolving demand from key buyers such as the Middle East and China. Once supply normalizes and traditional price relationships reassert themselves, competition is expected to intensify and current export margins may narrow.
Source: Market Data
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