- Inventories Surge: US soybean oil stocks climbed to 988,000 tonnes by end-December, a 22% rise since the season start and the highest level in 19 months.
- Demand Softens: Soybean oil consumption fell to 12.2 million tonnes in 2025 from 12.4 million tonnes a year earlier amid persistent biofuels sector weakness.
- Crushing at Record Pace: Record US soybean crushing offset lower canola and cottonseed volumes, lifting total oilseed processing 7% season-to-date.
- Market Implication: Elevated US stocks and muted demand are neutral to slightly bearish for global vegoil markets and could curb US import demand for Black Sea sunflower and rapeseed oils.
US Soybean Crushing and Inventory Overview
Oil World reports that the United States processed record soybean volumes during the first four months of the 2025/26 marketing season (September–December). As a result, soybean oil inventories increased to 988,000 tonnes by end-December, a 22% rise from the start of the season and the highest level in 19 months.
| Indicator | Period | Value | Change vs. Previous / Start |
|---|---|---|---|
| US soybean oil inventories | End-December 2025 | 988,000 tonnes | +22% vs. season start; 19-month high |
| Soybean oil consumption | Full-year 2025 | 12.2 million tonnes | -0.2 million tonnes vs. 2024 (12.4 million tonnes) |
| Soybean oil consumption | Oct–Dec 2025 | 3.28 million tonnes | Annual growth slowed to 1% vs. 4% in Jul–Sep 2025 |
| Total processing of four major oilseeds | December 2025 | — | +5% vs. prior year |
| Total processing of four major oilseeds | Season-to-date 2025/26 | — | +7% vs. prior year |
The strong pace of soybean crushing more than compensated for reduced canola and cottonseed processing. This pushed the total processing of the four major oilseeds 5% above prior-year levels in December alone, and 7% higher for the season to date.
Soybean Oil Demand and Biofuels Sector Impact
Despite robust crushing, soybean oil demand remained subdued. During October–December 2025, US soybean oil consumption reached 3.28 million tonnes, but the annual growth rate slowed to just 1%, down from 4% in July–September 2025. For the full year 2025, consumption fell to 12.2 million tonnes from 12.4 million tonnes in the previous year, marking a three-year low driven largely by ongoing challenges in the biofuels sector.
Market Impact and Black Sea Region Implications
The combination of record US soybean crushing and weaker domestic soybean oil demand is neutral to slightly bearish for global vegetable oil markets. Higher US inventories may reduce the country’s need for imported sunflower and rapeseed oils from the Black Sea region, potentially weighing on regional export margins. At the same time, continued strong soybean crushing supports soymeal output, which could indirectly enhance Black Sea protein meal competitiveness in global markets through relative pricing dynamics.
Traders and analysts should closely watch US biofuels policy developments. Any policy-driven recovery in the biofuels sector could quickly tighten soybean oil supplies, reverse the current inventory build, and shift the global demand balance across vegetable oils, including those originating from the Black Sea.
Source: Market Data
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