Russian Wheat Exports Jump 59% in February

• Export surge: Russian wheat exports for February 2024 are forecast at 3.3 million tons, up 59% year-on-year from 2.07 million tons.
• Back to normal levels: Projected exports are in line with the five-year February average of 3.27 million tons, signaling normalized Black Sea flows.
• Bearish for prices: Strong export momentum and ample Black Sea supply support a generally bearish tone for global wheat prices.
• Low weather risk: Winter wheat remains stable under snow cover despite cold temperatures, limiting downside production risk for the 2024 harvest.

Russian Wheat Export Outlook

Russian wheat exports in February 2024 are forecast to reach nearly 3.3 million tons, according to the analytical center of JSC Rusagrotrans. This would mark a 59% year-on-year increase from the 2.07 million tons shipped in February 2023 and place current export activity in line with the five-year February average of 3.27 million tons. The projection is based on shipment data from Russia’s deep-water ports, as reported by Interfax.

In January 2024, Russia exported a total of 2.8 million tons of grain, Rusagrotrans data show. The analytical center also notes that winter wheat crops across most growing regions remain protected under snow cover despite a period of low temperatures, indicating limited immediate weather-related risks for crop development.

Market Implications and Price Tone

The sharp year-on-year increase in February exports underscores strong export momentum from Russia, contributing to a bearish tone for global wheat prices as Black Sea supply remains ample. With projected volumes closely aligned with the historical February average, export flows appear to have normalized following last year’s constraints, reinforcing Russia’s role as a key supplier into global wheat markets.

Traders should watch whether this elevated export pace continues through the spring. Sustained high shipment volumes could add further pressure on FOB prices in competing origins, particularly in Europe and the Americas. Meanwhile, the stable winter crop situation, supported by protective snow cover, reduces downside production risk for the 2024 harvest, adding another layer of potential supply confidence to the market.

Source: Market Data