- Bearish for Black Sea sunflower seeds: EU sunflower seed processing fell to 7.4 million tonnes in 2025 (from 9 million in 2024), a nine-year low that weakens demand for Ukrainian and other Black Sea origins.
- Capacity shift to rapeseed: Refineries in the Netherlands, France, and Bulgaria are reallocating crushing capacity to rapeseed as sunflower processing margins deteriorate.
- Supply constraints persist: Reduced EU farmer selling and ongoing disruptions to Ukrainian exports continue to limit sunflower seed availability, pressuring processing volumes.
- Seasonal uptick not enough: Q4 2025 sunflower crush rose 7% year-on-year to 2.1 million tonnes, but failed to offset sharp declines earlier in the year.
EU Sunflower and Rapeseed Processing Overview
EU sunflower seed processing recorded a modest seasonal increase in October–December 2025, reaching approximately 2.1 million tonnes, up 7% year-on-year. Despite this uptick, full-year 2025 sunflower processing declined sharply to 7.4 million tonnes, a nine-year low and a significant drop from the 9 million tonnes processed in 2024, according to Oil World estimates.
The contraction reflects structurally tighter sunflower seed supply and weaker processing economics. Lower sunflower production within the EU, combined with restrained farmer selling, has constrained raw material availability. At the same time, Russia’s war against Ukraine continues to disrupt Ukrainian sunflower exports, further tightening flows into the EU.
EU Oilseed Crushing Volumes (Selected Periods)
| Oilseed & Period | Region | Volume (million tonnes) | Year-on-Year Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunflower seeds (Full year 2024) | EU | 9.0 | – |
| Sunflower seeds (Full year 2025) | EU | 7.4 | -1.6 vs 2024 |
| Sunflower seeds (Oct–Dec 2025) | EU | 2.1 | +7% YoY |
| Rapeseed (Oct–Dec 2025) | EU | 6.6 | +5% YoY |
Capacity Reallocation Toward Rapeseed
Deteriorating sunflower processing margins have accelerated a shift in EU crushing capacity toward more profitable oilseeds, particularly rapeseed. Refineries in the Netherlands, France, and Bulgaria have been at the forefront of this reorientation, taking advantage of strong rapeseed production and adequate global oilseed reserves.
Rapeseed processing in the EU reached 6.6 million tonnes in October–December 2025, up 5% year-on-year. This expansion underscores how processors are using flexible capacity to optimize margins, often at the expense of sunflower seed throughput.
Market Impact and Outlook for Black Sea Sunflower Seeds
The structural shift in EU processing capacity away from sunflower seeds is bearish for Black Sea exporters, particularly Ukraine. With EU refineries prioritizing rapeseed, demand for imported sunflower seeds softens, adding pressure to Black Sea sunflower seed values. Exporters may increasingly need to diversify sales toward Asia and the Middle East to compensate for weaker EU offtake.
The nine-year low in EU sunflower processing suggests that this trend could extend into 2026, especially if supply constraints and margin pressures persist. This environment risks widening basis differentials between Black Sea FOB prices and EU destination markets as EU buyers discount sunflower relative to alternative oilseeds such as rapeseed.
Source: Market Data
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