- Bullish: February wheat exports are forecast to jump 59% year-on-year to 3.3 million tons amid pre-quota positioning, supporting five-month high Russian FOB prices at $235/t.
- Bearish: July–January wheat exports are still down 13% year-on-year due to stronger competition from the EU, Australia, and Argentina, which could cap gains once the quota-driven surge fades.
Russian Wheat Export Dynamics
Russian wheat exports totaled 2.8 million tons in January 2026, essentially flat versus January 2025, as exporters accelerated shipments toward the end of the month ahead of the February 15 export quota. Total grain exports, including wheat, corn, and barley, fell 18.9% year-on-year to 2.994 million tons, with corn and barley volumes dropping sharply.
In the July–January 2025/26 marketing period, Russia shipped 34.3 million tons of grain crops, down 16.3% from the previous year. Wheat exports reached 30.6 million tons, a 13% decline amid tougher competition from the EU, Australia, and Argentina. Export geography also narrowed, with Russian wheat delivered to 22 countries in January versus 33 a year earlier. Egypt remained the top buyer at 895,000 tons, though its purchases slipped 4.5% year-on-year.
February Export Outlook and Pricing
Rusagrotrans projects Russian wheat exports at around 3.3 million tons in February, driven by pre-quota loading at deep-water ports. This would mark a 59% year-on-year increase from 2.07 million tons in February 2025 and align closely with the five-year average of 3.27 million tons. The tactical push ahead of the quota is expected to temporarily tighten Black Sea wheat availability and underpin prices.
| Metric | Period / Spec | Value | Year-on-Year Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat exports | January 2026 | 2.8 million tons | ~0% vs Jan 2025 |
| Total grain exports | January 2026 | 2.994 million tons | -18.9% |
| Corn exports | January 2026 | 197,300 tons | >50% lower |
| Barley exports | January 2026 | 109,000 tons | 5x lower |
| Grain exports | Jul–Jan 2025/26 | 34.3 million tons | -16.3% |
| Wheat exports | Jul–Jan 2025/26 | 30.6 million tons | -13% |
| Export destinations (wheat) | January | 22 countries (2026) | 33 countries (2025) |
| Egypt wheat imports from Russia | January 2026 | 895,000 tons | -4.5% |
| Forecast wheat exports | February 2026 | 3.3 million tons | +59% vs Feb 2025 (2.07 Mt) |
| 5-year average exports | February | 3.27 million tons | In line |
| Commodity / Market | Specification | Price | Change / Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russian wheat (FOB) | 12.5% protein, Feb delivery | $235/t | Highest since late Aug 2025 |
| Russian wheat (FOB bid) | 12.5% protein | $231/t | Stable vs prior levels |
| Domestic wheat (deep-water ports) | Road delivery, excl. VAT | 15,600–15,800 RUB/t | +50 RUB/t |
Russian FOB offer prices for 12.5% protein wheat rose to $235/t for February shipment, a five-month high, with bids steady at $231/t. Domestically, deep-water port prices increased to 15,600–15,800 rubles per ton (excluding VAT) for road-delivered wheat, reflecting stronger external demand and tighter nearby supply.
Weather Risks and Production Outlook
Abnormally low temperatures forecast for the coming week introduce downside risk to Russia’s 2026 wheat production. While most winter crop areas are shielded by adequate snow cover, central and southern regions with thinner snow protection could face localized frost damage as temperatures fall to -20/–25°C. Any measurable winterkill would reinforce the current bullish tone in Black Sea wheat pricing.
Market Implications
The near-term market tone for Black Sea wheat is bullish. Quota-driven front-loading of exports, elevated FOB offers, and emerging weather threats are tightening the nearby balance. However, the year-to-date 13% decline in wheat exports and reduced destination diversity highlight ongoing competitiveness challenges that may restrain sustained price appreciation once the quota effect fades and rival origins remain active.
Source: Market Data
Leave a Reply