- Logistics Diversification: Kazakhstan is expanding use of Trans-Caspian grain routes to Europe and North Africa, reducing reliance on traditional Black Sea lanes.
- Stable Russian Flows: Rostov-on-Don handled over 8 million tons and 3,800 vessels in 2025, confirming resilient export activity with wider reach into Asia and Africa.
- Oilseed Ambitions: Planned investment in Caspian oil-loading terminals underpins Kazakhstan’s goal to become a top-three global sunflower oil exporter.
- Risk Mitigation: Alternative Caspian and North-South corridors help offset disruptions in the Red Sea and Panama Canal, supporting more secure grain and oilseed flows.
- Market Tone: Infrastructure expansion and diversified buyer bases create a neutral to moderately bullish backdrop for Black Sea wheat, corn, and sunflower oil in 2026.
Market Update
The Caspian Sea corridor is emerging as a critical alternative freight route for Kazakh grain exports, according to Asset Kurmashev, General Director of Sarja Grain Terminal, speaking at the KAZAKH GRAIN & LOGISTIC FORUM on February 4 in Almaty. In 2025, Kazakhstan successfully shipped grain to European destinations including Belgium, Poland, Portugal, Norway, and the United Kingdom, alongside Algeria, utilizing the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR).
Kurmashev highlighted that disruptions in the Red Sea and declining water levels in the Panama Canal have elevated the strategic role of both the TITR and North-South Corridor for agricultural logistics. He called for investment in oil-loading terminals beyond existing facilities at Aktau and Kuryk ports, as Kazakhstan pursues ambitious plans to rank among the world’s top three sunflower oil exporters.
Meanwhile, the Port of Rostov-on-Don reported cargo turnover exceeding 8 million tons in 2025, with customs officers clearing approximately 3,800 vessels. The port maintained its traditional export mix of wheat, barley, corn, sunflower oil, coal, steel products, and fertilizers.
Vladimir Nichipurovich, head of the Rostov-on-Don River Port customs post, noted geographic expansion with increased shipments to Asian and African markets, including Algeria, Sudan, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, and Tunisia, alongside traditional destinations Turkey, Egypt, Lebanon, and Georgia.
Analysis
Market Impact: Neutral to Moderately Bullish
The diversification of Black Sea freight routes through Caspian corridors provides market participants with alternative logistics channels amid global shipping disruptions. Kazakhstan’s infrastructure development signals increased competition for traditional Black Sea export flows, potentially redistributing cargo volumes across multiple corridors.
The Rostov-on-Don data confirms sustained export activity from Russian ports, with geographic diversification to North African and Middle Eastern buyers reducing concentration risk. Traders should monitor infrastructure development timelines at Caspian terminals, as expanded capacity could alter freight rate dynamics and origin competitiveness for wheat, corn, and sunflower oil shipments in 2026.
Key Logistics and Volume Metrics
| Location / Corridor | Metric | Value (2025) |
|---|---|---|
| Port of Rostov-on-Don | Cargo turnover | > 8 million tons |
| Port of Rostov-on-Don | Vessels cleared | ~3,800 |
| Trans-Caspian Route (TITR) | Kazakh grain export reach | Belgium, Poland, Portugal, Norway, UK, Algeria |
Source: Market Data
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