- Bullish: Vegetable oil markets, led by Black Sea sunflower oil and US soybean oil, firmed with several benchmarks hitting weekly or record highs, reflecting tight supply and resilient demand.
- Bearish: Broad-based declines in soybean and sunflower meal prices signal weaker protein demand and margin pressure for crushers, tempering the overall bullish tone for the oilseed complex.
Global Vegetable Oil and Oilseed Market Update
Vegetable Oils
| Commodity / Location | Price | Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunflower Oil FOB Black Sea | $1,290.00/t | + $5.00/t | Weekly high |
| Sunflower Oil CIF Mumbai (India) | $1,412.90/t | + $4.98/t | |
| Soybean Oil US CBOT | $1,201.30/t | + $28.44/t | New high |
| Soybean Oil FOB Brazil | $1,177.78/t | + $7.96/t | |
| Soybean Oil FOB EU | $1,269.91/t | + $6.33/t | |
| Soybean Oil Dalian China | $1,175.89/t | – $9.20/t | New low |
| Rapeseed Oil FOB Netherlands | $1,236.11/t | + $2.80/t | |
| Palm Oil FOB Malaysia | $1,094.50/t | + $2.49/t | |
| Palm Kernel Oil RBD FOB Malaysia | $2,044.73/t | + $9.95/t | New high |
| Coconut Oil FOB Indonesia | $2,810.90/t | 0.00 | Unchanged |
Vegetable oil markets showed a broadly firmer tone. Sunflower oil FOB Black Sea climbed to $1,290.00/t, a weekly high, supported by sustained buying interest from key importers, particularly India, where CIF Mumbai values increased to $1,412.90/t.
Soybean oil posted mixed regional moves. US CBOT led gains, jumping $28.44/t to a record $1,201.30/t, while FOB Brazil and FOB EU also advanced to $1,177.78/t and $1,269.91/t respectively. In contrast, Dalian China soybean oil slipped $9.20/t to a new low of $1,175.89/t, highlighting softer demand or more comfortable nearby supply in the Chinese market.
Rapeseed oil FOB Netherlands edged higher to $1,236.11/t, and palm oil FOB Malaysia firmed to $1,094.50/t. Lauric oils diverged, with palm kernel oil RBD FOB Malaysia reaching a fresh high at $2,044.73/t, while coconut oil FOB Indonesia held steady at $2,810.90/t.
Meals
| Commodity / Location | Price | Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Soybean Meal FOB Brazil | $326.76/t | – $3.38/t | Weekly low |
| Soybean Meal US CBOT | $321.76/t | – $2.87/t | New low |
| Soybean Meal Dalian China | $433.72/t | – $4.93/t | New low |
| Soybean Meal CIF EU | $371.14/t | – $1.99/t | New low |
| Sunflower Meal CIF France | $259.99/t | – $0.68/t | |
| Rapeseed Meal FOB EU | $289.53/t | + $3.65/t |
Meal markets softened across most origins, with soybean meal leading the declines. FOB Brazil fell to $326.76/t, US CBOT dropped to $321.76/t, and Dalian China eased to $433.72/t, all touching weekly or new lows. CIF EU soybean meal also marked a new low at $371.14/t.
Sunflower meal CIF France edged down to $259.99/t, extending the weaker tone in protein feeds. Rapeseed meal FOB EU was the main exception, rising to $289.53/t and modestly bucking the broader bearish trend in meals.
Oilseeds
| Commodity / Location | Price | Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Soybeans US CBOT | $391.59/t | + $2.02/t | New high |
| Soybeans FOB Brazil | $411.53/t | + $1.29/t | |
| Soybeans Dalian China | $627.44/t | + $4.81/t | New high |
| Rapeseed MATIF France | $564.29/t | + $4.63/t |
Oilseed benchmarks moved moderately higher. US CBOT soybeans gained $2.02/t to $391.59/t, while FOB Brazil added $1.29/t to $411.53/t. Dalian China soybeans strengthened more firmly, rising $4.81/t to a new high of $627.44/t, pointing to robust domestic demand or tighter local supplies.
Rapeseed futures on MATIF France advanced $4.63/t to $564.29/t, in line with the generally firmer tone across the oilseed complex and the strength observed in rapeseed oil prices.
Market Analysis: Neutral to Slightly Bullish for Black Sea Sunflower Complex
The move to weekly highs in Black Sea sunflower oil underscores solid demand, particularly from India, where CIF values also trended higher. This strength in sunflower oil, combined with record-level US soybean oil prices, highlights a generally tight global vegetable oil balance, providing underlying support for Black Sea exporters.
However, the concurrent weakness in soybean and sunflower meals across all major benchmarks signals softer protein demand and compressing crush margins. While oil values are currently compensating for cheaper meals, prolonged pressure on meal prices could challenge overall crushing profitability and temper future supply growth.
For the Black Sea sunflower complex, the current environment is neutral to slightly bullish: oil prices and premiums versus competing origins remain supportive for exports, but traders and crushers should closely watch meal dynamics, as sustained weakness in by-products may eventually cap upside in crush activity and limit further price appreciation.
Source: Market Data
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