- Exports down 28% YoY: Ukraine shipped 18.941 million tons of grain as of February 2, 2025/26 MY, versus 26.449 million tons a year earlier.
- Wheat and corn hit hard: Wheat exports fell 23% to 8.488 million tons, while corn dropped 31% to 8.815 million tons year-on-year.
- February pace collapsing: Only 34 thousand tons shipped in early February versus 758 thousand tons in the same 2024 period.
- Freight flows shifting: Weaker Ukrainian volumes may redirect demand toward Russian and Romanian origins, altering Black Sea freight dynamics.
Ukrainian Grain Export Performance
Ukraine’s grain and leguminous exports have contracted sharply in the 2025/26 marketing year. As of February 2, total shipments reached 18.941 million tons, a 28% decline compared with 26.449 million tons by February 7, 2024. The fall underscores both weaker export availability and ongoing logistical frictions.
| Crop | 2025/26 Exports (as of early Feb, mln t) | 2024/25 Exports (as of early Feb, mln t) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total grain & leguminous | 18.941 | 26.449 | -28% |
| Wheat | 8.488 | 11.073 | -23% |
| Corn | 8.815 | 12.865 | -31% |
| Barley | 1.335 | 2.079 | -36% |
| Rye | 0.0002 | N/A | Minimal exports |
| Product | 2025/26 Exports (thousand t) | 2024/25 Exports (thousand t) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total flour | 38.8 | 44.4 | -13% |
| Wheat flour | 37.7 | N/A | Major share of flour exports |
Early February Shipment Dynamics
The start of February has highlighted the depth of the slowdown. Ukraine shipped only 34 thousand tons of grain in the first two days of the month, compared with 758 thousand tons in the same period last year. This points to either intensifying logistical bottlenecks, weaker exportable surplus, or a combination of both.
Freight and Market Implications
The pronounced reduction in Ukrainian grain flows is likely to suppress freight demand on Ukraine-specific Black Sea routes, potentially pressuring vessel rates and narrowing local freight premiums. At the same time, importers seeking Black Sea-origin grains may pivot more volume toward Russian and Romanian ports, which could lend support to Panamax and Handymax rates on alternative regional routes. Traders should monitor whether Ukraine’s February weakness persists, as a sustained shortfall would tighten supply from this key origin and could reprice freight spreads across the basin.
Source: Market Data
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