- Zero export duty extended: Russia will maintain zero export duties on wheat, barley, and corn for February 3–10, 2026, preserving competitiveness in global markets.
- Indicative prices edge higher: Wheat, barley, and corn indicative prices all posted small week-on-week gains, signaling modest demand strength.
- Neutral to slightly bullish tone: Continued duty-free exports support steady Black Sea supply while firmer prices hint at improving international buying interest.
- Policy framework intact: The grain damper mechanism continues to recycle potential export duty revenues into domestic subsidies without currently imposing costs on exporters.
Russia Maintains Zero Export Duties on Grains Through Mid-February
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture will keep export duties on wheat, barley, and corn at zero for the period February 3–10, 2026. This extension of the duty-free regime comes despite modest increases in the indicative prices used to calculate floating export duties under Russia’s grain damper mechanism.
Indicative Price Changes
| Commodity | Indicative Price (Previous) | Indicative Price (Current) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat | $226.3/ton | $227.3/ton | +$1.0/ton |
| Barley | $201.2/ton | $202.0/ton | +$0.8/ton |
| Corn | $203.3/ton | $203.7/ton | +$0.4/ton |
All three key grain benchmarks posted small week-on-week increases. However, current levels remain below the thresholds that would trigger positive export duties under the floating mechanism, allowing the zero-duty status to continue.
Grain Damper Mechanism and Policy Background
Russia’s grain damper mechanism, in place since June 2, 2021, applies floating export duties to wheat, corn, and barley. Revenues from any activated duties are earmarked for subsidies to domestic agricultural producers, partially insulating the internal market from external price shocks.
On July 25, 2025, the government raised the base price for calculating export duties on barley and corn by 1,000 rubles to 17,785 rubles per ton. The higher base price effectively delays the onset of export duties when international prices rise, giving exporters more room to operate before facing additional cost burdens.
Market Impact: Neutral to Slightly Bullish
The extension of zero export duties supports Russia’s continued competitiveness in global grain trade, particularly in wheat from the Black Sea corridor. Steady, duty-free flows help ensure reliable supply for international buyers while small upticks in indicative prices point to modest strengthening in global demand.
From a trading perspective, the current setup is neutral to slightly bullish: export channels remain fully open, but prices have yet to reach levels that would activate duties and constrain margins. Market participants should watch upcoming weekly calculations to see whether further gains bring indicative prices closer to duty-triggering thresholds.
Source: Market Data
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