- Prices soften: Ukrainian sunflower seed values for 48% oil content have eased to UAH 28,800–29,000/ton from recent highs of UAH 29,500–29,700/ton.
- Processor coverage high: Crushers have already secured around 60–70% of February needs, cutting purchasing activity and removing price premiums.
- Further downside expected: PUSK analysts project an additional short-term decline of UAH 500–700/ton, but do not foresee a sharp market collapse.
Ukrainian Sunflower Seed Market Overview
The Ukrainian sunflower seed market is undergoing a controlled price retreat after several weeks of elevated levels. According to PUSK, operating under the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council, processing plants have scaled back procurement as ample supply flows allowed them to cover a substantial portion of near-term requirements.
With approximately 60–70% of February sunflower seed needs already secured, processors have shifted from aggressive buying with premiums to a more selective stance. This change in behavior is exerting downward pressure on bids and narrowing the gap between spot demand and indicative price benchmarks.
Price Development
Peak prices for small lots of sunflower seeds with 48% oil content recently reached UAH 29,500–29,700/ton. As processor demand has cooled, current market quotes have softened to UAH 28,800–29,000/ton, marking a clear pullback from the latest highs.
| Parameter | Previous Level | Current / Expected Level | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunflower seeds 48% oil (small lots) | UAH 29,500–29,700/ton | UAH 28,800–29,000/ton | −UAH 700–900/ton |
| Processor coverage of February needs | Lower coverage (earlier in month) | 60–70% | Coverage increased |
| Forecast short-term price correction | — | −UAH 500–700/ton from current levels | Additional −2–3% |
Market Sentiment and Outlook
Bearish bias dominates the short-term outlook. Adequate processor coverage and the disappearance of premiums indicate weakening demand fundamentals. With buyers having met most of their immediate requirements, procurement urgency has faded, shifting negotiating leverage in favor of processors.
PUSK analysts describe current prices as a “local maximum” and expect a further UAH 500–700/ton decline from present levels, roughly a 2–3% adjustment. This is viewed as a measured correction rather than the start of a disorderly sell-off, implying continued but controlled downside for sellers and potential timing advantages for buyers who can wait for lower levels before booking larger volumes.
Source: Market Data
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