- Bearish Ukraine FX Earnings: Sunflower oil export revenue losses may exceed $0.6 billion in 2026 due to ongoing infrastructure damage.
- Structurally Lower Exports: Export volumes are projected to stabilize at just 3.2–3.5 million tons in 2025/26, well below pre-war levels of 6.1 million tons in 2020.
- Capacity Shock: The loss of around 50% of Ukraine’s port infrastructure will cap any recovery in export throughput despite potential corridor improvements.
- Global Market Impact: Tight Ukrainian export availability is likely to support global sunflower oil prices and open space for rival suppliers (Russia, Argentina, EU).
Market Update
Ukraine is projected to lose over $600 million in foreign exchange earnings from sunflower oil exports in 2026, according to Oleksandr Zakharchuk, Head of the Investment and Logistics Department at the Institute of Agrarian Economics. The estimate underscores the prolonged effects of infrastructure damage on Ukraine’s vegetable oil trade and its balance of payments.
Before the escalation of conflict, Ukraine was a leading global supplier of sunflower oil, exporting 6.1 million tons in 2020 and 4.6 million tons in 2021. However, in the first 10 months of 2025, exports reached only 3.5 million tons, reflecting both physical capacity losses and ongoing logistical disruptions.
| Marketing Year / Period | Sunflower Oil Exports (Million Tons) |
|---|---|
| 2020 (Pre-war) | 6.1 |
| 2021 | 4.6 |
| Jan–Oct 2025 | 3.5 |
| Forecast 2025/26 | 3.2–3.5 |
The Institute of Agrarian Economics forecasts that sunflower oil exports will stabilize at 3.2–3.5 million tons in the 2025/26 marketing year. This forecast assumes a partial restoration of the Black Sea grain corridor via the Bosphorus, which could improve logistics but cannot fully offset the loss of approximately half of Ukraine’s port infrastructure capacity.
Analysis
Bearish for Ukrainian Sunflower Oil Exports. The structural damage to Ukraine’s port infrastructure acts as a hard ceiling on export volumes, limiting the country’s ability to regain its former share of global sunflower oil trade. Even with improved access to maritime corridors, reduced loading, storage, and handling capacity will keep export flows constrained through at least 2026.
For global markets, constrained Ukrainian supply is likely to have a supportive effect on sunflower oil prices, particularly during periods of strong demand or weather-related shocks in other origins. Competing exporters such as Russia, Argentina, and EU producers are positioned to expand shipments into traditional Ukrainian destination markets, capturing incremental market share as buyers seek to diversify supply away from Ukrainian logistical risk.
Traders and processors should factor in structurally tighter Ukrainian availability when planning procurement strategies for 2025/26 and 2026, including greater reliance on alternative origins and potential substitution with other vegetable oils where technically feasible.
Source: Market Data
Leave a Reply