- Stocks Slide: China’s rapeseed oil inventories fell 8.4% in a week to 254.5 thousand tons, signaling tightening domestic supply.
- Futures Firm: Rapeseed oil futures gained 49 yuan/ton as traders price in stronger demand and reduced availability.
- Russian Supply Gains: Russia’s rapeseed oil exports to China climbed 27% year-on-year to $1.4 billion, making it the country’s second-largest vegetable oil supplier.
- Bullish Black Sea Outlook: Lower Chinese stocks and expanding Russian trade flows support a positive short‑term view for Black Sea rapeseed prices and exports.
China Rapeseed Oil Market Update
China’s rapeseed oil warehouse stocks dropped sharply to 254.5 thousand tons as of January 23, reflecting a weekly decline of 21 thousand tons, or 8.4%, across key storage hubs. The rapid drawdown underlines firm end‑user demand and tightening availability in the world’s largest vegetable oil consuming market.
The stock reduction sparked an immediate price reaction, with domestic rapeseed oil futures closing the latest session up 49 yuan per ton. The futures rally underscores market expectations that supply will remain tight in the near term, prompting buyers to secure coverage ahead of further potential gains.
Trade Flows and Supplier Dynamics
Customs data highlight Russia’s expanding role in China’s rapeseed oil supply chain. In 2025, Russian rapeseed oil exports to China reached $1.4 billion, up 27% from 2024, elevating Russia to the position of China’s second‑largest vegetable oil supplier. This growth reflects deepening trade ties and Russia’s capacity to respond to China’s incremental demand.
Key Market Metrics
| Indicator | Latest Value | Change | Period / Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| China rapeseed oil stocks | 254.5 thousand tons | -21 thousand tons (-8.4%) | Week ending January 23 |
| Rapeseed oil futures | +49 yuan/ton | +49 yuan/ton | Last trading session change |
| Russian rapeseed oil exports to China | $1.4 billion | +27% year-on-year | 2025 vs. 2024 |
Implications for Black Sea Rapeseed
The steep inventory decline in China is supportive for global vegetable oil prices, with a particularly constructive impact on Black Sea rapeseed. As China moves to rebuild strategic stocks, additional import demand is likely to focus on established suppliers in the Black Sea region, especially Russia, which has already expanded its market share.
Tighter Chinese stocks, firmer futures and proven logistics channels from Russia to China collectively point to a bullish short‑term outlook for Black Sea rapeseed values and export activity, with exporters positioned to benefit from stronger pricing leverage.
Source: Market Data
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