- Neutral: Canada’s 2025/26 wheat export forecast raised to 28.6 million tonnes, keeping global supplies well covered.
- Slightly Bearish for Black Sea: Strong Canadian export pace and steady 2026/27 export projections signal ongoing competition in key import markets.
- Stocks Drawdown: Exports remain elevated despite a projected 5 million tonne production decline, implying reduced stockpiles rather than tighter seaborne supply.
Canada’s Wheat Export Outlook
Agriculture Canada has increased its 2025/26 wheat export forecast to 28.6 million tonnes, up 0.2 million tonnes from the previous estimate. This brings the official outlook slightly above the USDA’s January projection of 28 million tonnes, although it still sits 0.6 million tonnes below the 2024/25 result.
The revision is driven primarily by weaker domestic demand. Estimated domestic wheat consumption has been cut to 8.1 million tonnes, 0.2 million tonnes lower than the prior forecast, freeing up additional volume for export channels.
Current Export Pace
According to Canadian Grain Commission data, wheat exports between August 2025 and January 11 have already reached approximately 12.6 million tonnes, an 8% increase compared with the same period a year earlier. This implies that about 44% of the updated annual export target has already been shipped by mid-January, underscoring Canada’s strong positioning in global wheat trade flows.
| Marketing Year | Production (mln t) | Exports (mln t) | Change vs Prior Forecast (Exports) | Domestic Use (mln t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 (result) | — | 29.2 | — | — |
| 2025/26 (Jan forecast) | 40.0* | 28.6 | +0.2 | 8.1 |
| 2026/27 (outlook) | 35.0 | 28.5 | — | — |
| Aug 2025–11 Jan 2026 (exports to date) | — | 12.6 | +8% YoY | — |
*Production for 2025/26 is inferred from the projected 5 million tonne decline to 35 million tonnes in 2026/27.
2026/27 Production and Export Balance
For the 2026/27 season, Agriculture Canada expects wheat production to decline to 35 million tonnes, down 5 million tonnes from 2025/26. Despite this notable drop in output, exports are projected at 28.5 million tonnes, just 0.1 million tonnes lower than the 2025/26 forecast. This suggests that Canada is prepared to draw down inventories to protect its export presence, rather than tightening seaborne availability.
Impact on Black Sea Wheat
The market impact is assessed as neutral to slightly bearish for Black Sea wheat. Canada’s ability to sustain exports near 28.5–28.6 million tonnes, even in a lower production environment, reinforces competitive pressure in overlapping destinations, including key markets in Asia, Latin America, and parts of the Middle East/North Africa.
With nearly half of the 2025/26 export target already shipped by mid-January and domestic use revised down, Canadian exporters are positioned to remain aggressive on volume. Black Sea sellers may face more intense competition on tender pricing and quality differentiation, particularly where Canadian origin already has established market share.
Source: Market Data
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