- January 2025 grain exports edged up to 2.649 million tons, slightly above January 2024 volumes and signaling a modest acceleration in near-term shipment pace.
- Total 2025/26 MY exports remained 26.9% below last year at 18.181 million tons, highlighting ongoing supply constraints or delayed flows from Ukraine.
- Corn and wheat together made up 91% of exports, but both lagged prior-year levels, reinforcing a neutral to bearish tone for Ukrainian origin pricing.
- Reduced cumulative shipments may tighten Black Sea cargo availability, lending some support to regional freight rates despite weaker export volumes.
Ukrainian Grain Export Performance
Ukraine exported 2.649 million tons of grain in January 2025, slightly above the 2.635 million tons shipped in January 2024. Despite this monthly improvement, cumulative exports in the 2025/26 marketing year reached 18.181 million tons as of January 26, down 26.9% year-on-year from 24.867 million tons.
The year-to-date shortfall of 6.686 million tons underscores weaker overall export flows compared with the previous season, even as the latest monthly figures show tentative signs of acceleration.
Exports by Commodity
| Commodity | 2025/26 Exports (million tons) |
2024/25 Exports (million tons) |
Change (million tons) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat | 8.373 | 10.609 | -2.236 |
| Corn | 8.188 | 11.801 | -3.613 |
| Barley | 1.322 | 2.038 | -0.716 |
| Rye | 0.0002 | 0.0108 | -0.0106 |
| Total Grain & Legumes | 18.181 | 24.867 | -6.686 |
Corn and wheat dominate Ukraine’s export mix, accounting for roughly 91% of total grain and leguminous shipments so far in 2025/26. Both commodities are significantly below last year’s levels, with corn down by 3.613 million tons and wheat by 2.236 million tons. Barley and rye exports are also trailing, with rye volumes remaining negligible.
Flour Export Overview
| Product | 2025/26 Exports (thousand tons) |
2024/25 Exports (thousand tons) |
Change (thousand tons) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Flour | 37.4 | 42.5 | -5.1 |
| Wheat Flour | 36.3 | n/a | n/a |
Ukrainian flour exports reached 37.4 thousand tons by January 26, below the 42.5 thousand tons recorded in the comparable 2024/25 period. Wheat flour comprised 36.3 thousand tons, confirming it as the dominant segment within Ukraine’s processed grain exports.
Market Impact and Outlook
The current export profile is broadly neutral to bearish for Ukrainian grain pricing. Although January shipments slightly exceeded last year, the 26.9% deficit in cumulative volumes points to constrained supply availability or logistical delays. Reduced export flows are likely to tighten Black Sea freight demand in the near term, potentially supporting freight rates as shipowners compete for fewer cargoes.
At the same time, the slower export pace could pressure Ukrainian origin premiums as sellers seek to maintain or expand market share in key destination markets. February loading programs will be critical: a sustained acceleration in shipments will be needed to close the gap with last season and to support full-year export targets.
Source: Market Data
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