- Ukrainian milling wheat prices held steady at USD 206–214/t CPT port, with feed wheat at USD 198–208/t CPT port.
- Farmer reluctance to sell and firm consumer demand supported prices despite weak trader interest.
- Frequent power outages and reduced production capacity limited upside and added operational risk.
- Domestic prices remained stable, with second-class wheat at UAH 9,700–10,600/t and feed wheat at UAH 8,500–9,800/t CPT.
- Overall market balance keeps the near-term outlook neutral, with key risks tied to power infrastructure and farmer selling behavior.
Market Overview
The Ukrainian wheat market saw no major price changes over the past week, with both export and domestic quotations largely unchanged. Stable pricing reflects a balance between constrained supply from farmers and steady consumer demand, offset by weak trader activity and logistical headwinds from power disruptions.
Export Wheat Prices (CPT Port)
| Commodity | Market | Price Range | Currency | Delivery Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milling wheat | Ukraine – Export | 206–214 | USD/t | CPT port |
| Feed wheat | Ukraine – Export | 198–208 | USD/t | CPT port |
Domestic Wheat Prices (CPT)
| Commodity | Market | Price Range | Currency | Delivery Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Second-class wheat | Ukraine – Domestic | 9,700–10,600 | UAH/t | CPT |
| Feed wheat | Ukraine – Domestic | 8,500–9,800 | UAH/t | CPT |
Market Drivers
Supply constraints remain a key feature of the Ukrainian wheat market, with many farmers reluctant to sell at current price levels and preferring to hold stocks. This limited grain availability has underpinned prices alongside firm demand from specific consumer segments.
On the other side, weak trader demand and reduced activity from trading houses have capped further price gains. In addition, frequent power outages across Ukraine have curtailed production capacity at numerous enterprises, adding operational challenges and weighing on forward demand.
Power Disruptions and Logistics Risk
Power infrastructure instability is an important risk factor for the Ukrainian wheat sector. Disruptions can affect both processing and logistics, potentially impacting grain handling, storage operations, and port elevation capacity. Any deterioration in power reliability could tighten effective supply and delay shipment schedules, with knock-on effects for Black Sea wheat flows.
Market Outlook
Market Impact: Neutral. Current price levels reflect a temporary equilibrium between constrained farmer selling and steady consumer demand, balanced by subdued trader interest and operational headwinds from power outages. For near-term direction, traders should closely watch changes in farmer selling behavior, domestic demand trends, and the stability of Ukraine’s power infrastructure, as shifts in any of these factors could quickly tilt the market from neutral toward either a tighter or looser balance.
Source: Market Data
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