- Harvest Progress: Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean harvest is 2% complete as of January 15, slightly ahead of last year, with crops in key states rated good to excellent.
- Record Production Outlook: Forecasts range from 176.1–179.3 million tonnes, with Safras&Mercado holding the most bullish estimate at 179.3 million tonnes.
- Crushing Capacity Growth: Domestic soybean crushing is projected to rise to 60 million tonnes, boosting meal and oil output by 2% and 3.7%, respectively.
- Weather Support: Expected shift from La Niña to El Niño between January and March should enhance rainfall in southern Brazil and support yields.
- Bearish for Black Sea Exports: Larger Brazilian supply and higher crushing volumes will intensify competition and pressure Black Sea soybean and meal export margins.
Brazilian Soybean Harvest and Production Outlook
Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean harvest has started at a slightly faster pace than last year, with AgRural estimating that 2% of the planned area had been threshed by January 15, versus 1.7% at the same time a year earlier. Fields in major producing states including Mato Grosso, Paraná, Goiás, and Mato Grosso do Sul are reported to be in good to excellent condition, underpinning expectations for another record crop.
Weather models indicate a transition from the current La Niña pattern to El Niño conditions between January and March. This shift is expected to bring more regular and favorable rainfall to southern Brazil, a key factor supporting yield potential and reinforcing the upside risk to already strong production forecasts.
Production and Area Forecasts
| Agency | Production (million tonnes) | Area (million hectares) |
|---|---|---|
| USDA | 178.0 | 49.1 |
| Conab | 176.1 | 48.7 |
| Safras&Mercado | 179.3 | n/a |
Production estimates for Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop cluster in a narrow, record-high range. The USDA projects 178.0 million tonnes from 49.1 million hectares, while Brazil’s Conab has trimmed its forecast by 1.0 million tonnes to 176.1 million tonnes on 48.7 million hectares. Safras&Mercado holds the most optimistic view, having raised its estimate from 178.8 million tonnes to 179.3 million tonnes.
Crushing Capacity, Meal, and Oil Output
| Item | 2024/25 | 2025/26 (Forecast) | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Domestic Crushing (million tonnes) | 58.5 | 60.0 | +2.6% |
| Soybean Meal Output (million tonnes) | 46.5 (approx.) | 47.4 | +2.0% |
| Soybean Oil Output (million tonnes) | 11.3 (approx.) | 11.7 | +3.7% |
Brazil’s domestic processing sector continues to expand, with soybean crushing volumes forecast to reach 60.0 million tonnes in 2025/26, up from 58.5 million tonnes in 2024/25. This will lift soybean meal production to an estimated 47.4 million tonnes and soybean oil output to 11.7 million tonnes, increases of 2% and 3.7%, respectively, further reinforcing Brazil’s role as a key supplier of protein meals and vegetable oils to the global market.
Market Impact and Black Sea Competitiveness
The combination of record Brazilian soybean production, favorable weather prospects, and rising crushing capacity is broadly bearish for competing origins. As Brazil’s new-crop supplies enter the global market in Q1–Q2 2025, Black Sea exporters of soybeans and soybean meal are likely to encounter intensified price competition, particularly in shared demand hubs. Higher Brazilian meal availability will also weigh on international protein feed markets, constraining upside for Black Sea meal export prices and volumes.
Source: Market Data
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