- Export Surge: U.S. soybean complex exports climbed 13% in 2024/25 to 68.7 MMT, with total export value reaching $29.6 billion.
- Record Meal & Oil: Soybean meal exports hit a record 16.3 MMT (+14%), while soybean oil exports jumped 304% to 1.1 MMT, led by Indian demand.
- Shifting Trade Flows: Rapid growth in U.S. soybean meal exports to Turkey, Vietnam, and Venezuela signals changing regional dynamics and stronger global protein demand.
- Black Sea Impact: Rising U.S. meal exports and growing crushing capacity are neutral to slightly bearish for Black Sea processors, despite still-solid global demand.
U.S. Soybean Complex Export Performance 2024/25
According to USDA’s Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS), total U.S. soybean complex exports reached 68.7 million metric tons (MMT) in the 2024/25 marketing year, a 13% increase versus the prior season and 2.9% above the five-year average. Export value for the complex amounted to $29.6 billion, reflecting strong global demand for U.S. oilseeds and derived products.
| Product | 2024/25 Exports (MMT) | Year-on-Year Change | Notable Details |
|---|---|---|---|
| Whole Soybeans | 51.2 | +11% | Core driver of complex exports; remains primary export form |
| Soybean Meal | 16.3 | +14% | Record high volume, supported by global protein demand |
| Soybean Oil | 1.1 | +304% | Exports more than quadrupled, led by India and Latin America |
| Total Soy Complex | 68.7 | +13% | 2.9% above five-year average export volume |
Destination Markets and Growth Trends
Whole soybeans remained the backbone of the U.S. export program at 51.2 MMT, up 11% year-on-year. Soybean meal shipments rose to a record 16.3 MMT, underpinned by expanding animal protein production and improved market access in key importing regions. The top five destinations for U.S. soybean meal in 2024/25 were China, Mexico, the EU-27, Egypt, and the Philippines.
Over the last five years, Turkey recorded the fastest growth in U.S. soybean meal imports at 342%, followed by Vietnam (+89%), Venezuela (+68%), Colombia (+48%), and Bangladesh (+40%). Regionally, increased U.S. soybean meal volumes were concentrated in the Philippines, Mexico, Colombia, and Canada, reflecting broad-based demand for feed protein.
Soybean oil exports surged to 1.1 MMT (+304% y/y), with India as the primary growth engine, and additional demand from Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, and the Dominican Republic. At the same time, Russia’s share of soybean oil imports to China exceeded 90% in December, underscoring stiff competition for Asian market share.
Market Impact and Black Sea Implications
The expansion of U.S. soybean complex exports, especially record soybean meal volumes, intensifies competition for Black Sea oilseed processors. Russia’s commanding position in Chinese soybean oil imports illustrates that the Black Sea retains strong influence in specific value chains, even as U.S. exporters gain ground in meal and whole beans.
For Black Sea traders, the 342% growth in Turkish imports of U.S. soybean meal is particularly notable, signaling a shift in regional trade flows and potential pressure on traditional suppliers. Overall, the outlook for the Black Sea region is neutral to slightly bearish: higher U.S. output and exports may cap global meal prices, but robust global protein demand and expanding livestock sectors continue to support crushing margins.
Source: Market Data
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