- Bullish Wheat: Russian 12.5% protein wheat FOB prices have risen to $228–230/tonne for the second consecutive week amid severe Black Sea port weather disruptions and downgraded January export estimates.
- Mixed Vegetable Oils: Sunflower oil prices show divergence across agencies and have printed a new Black Sea minimum, while export duty has increased, tempering downside for sellers.
Russian Wheat Market Update
Russian wheat export prices continued to firm for a second straight week as harsh winter conditions at Black Sea ports restricted shipping capacity. New-crop 12.5% protein wheat FOB Novorossiysk was assessed by IKAR at $229/tonne for early March delivery, up $1.50 week-on-week. SovEcon reported the same grade at $228–230/tonne FOB, compared with $226–228/tonne previously.
IKAR head Dmitry Rylko directly linked the price gains to record-breaking weather disruptions. January 2025 has already seen more than 15 days of adverse conditions limiting loadings, versus a typical maximum of 8–9 days. These constraints have led IKAR to trim its January wheat export forecast to 2.5 million tonnes from 3 million tonnes, while SovEcon still projects 3 million tonnes for the month. Wheat export duties remain at zero for the third consecutive week, covering the period from January 28 to February 3.
| Commodity / Indicator | Specification / Period | Price / Value | Previous | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russian Wheat 12.5% | FOB Novorossiysk, early March (IKAR) | $229/tonne | $227.50/tonne | + $1.50 |
| Russian Wheat 12.5% | FOB (SovEcon) | $228–230/tonne | $226–228/tonne | + $2 to $4 |
| Wheat Export Duty | Jan 28 – Feb 3 | $0 | $0 | No change |
| Wheat Exports (IKAR) | January estimate | 2.5 million tonnes | 3.0 million tonnes | − 0.5 million tonnes |
Sunflower Oil and Duty Overview
Sunflower oil pricing was fragmented across reporting agencies. SovEcon put sunflower oil at $1,300/tonne FOB, up $30 on the week, while IKAR assessed it at $1,275/tonne, down $5. According to OleoScope, sunflower oil was quoted at $1,220/tonne FOB Black Sea on January 23, 2026, a $30 day-on-day decline and a new local minimum.
| Commodity / Indicator | Specification / Date | Price / Value | Previous | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunflower Oil | FOB (SovEcon) | $1,300/tonne | $1,270/tonne | + $30 |
| Sunflower Oil | FOB (IKAR) | $1,275/tonne | $1,280/tonne | − $5 |
| Sunflower Oil | FOB Black Sea (OleoScope, Jan 23, 2026) | $1,220/tonne | $1,250/tonne | − $30 |
| Sunflower Oil Export Duty | February | 9,495 RUB | 9,298.6 RUB (December) | + 2.1% |
Market Analysis
For wheat, the combination of record weather-related port downtime and lower export projections is tightening near-term availability despite a zero export duty environment. The downward revision in IKAR’s January export estimate underscores that current constraints are logistical rather than demand-driven. With buying interest described as renewed and intact at prevailing price levels, traders should anticipate continued upward pressure on Russian FOB values if adverse conditions persist into early February, especially for prompt shipment windows.
Source: Market Data
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