- Bearish wheat: Australia’s 37 MMT wheat crop (+34% vs 10-year average) and 27 MMT exports in 2025/26 add significant export competition.
- Bearish barley: Record 15.5 MMT barley crop and 8.6 MMT exports intensify pressure on Black Sea barley values in shared Asian and MENA markets.
- Global spreads at risk: Higher Australian availability could compress global wheat and barley price premiums through Q2–Q3 2025.
Australia’s Wheat and Barley Production Outlook
The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service projects Australia’s 2025/26 wheat harvest at 37 million tonnes, the second-largest on record and 8.5% above last season. This level is also 34% higher than the 10-year average, driven primarily by exceptional yields that are set to be the second-highest on record despite only moderate seasonal conditions.
Barley production is forecast to reach an all-time high of 15.5 million tonnes, 32% above the 10-year average. Yield performance is central to this outcome, with grain yields estimated 12.5% higher than last year and 26% above the 10-year trend, underscoring the scale of Australia’s supply response.
Export Projections and Historical Context
Australian wheat exports in 2025/26 are projected at 27 million tonnes, an increase of 3.3 million tonnes year-on-year and 7.3 million tonnes above the 10-year average. Barley exports are expected at 8.6 million tonnes, which would be the second-highest level ever recorded and close to previous export peaks.
| Metric | 2025/26 Forecast | vs Previous Season | vs 10-Year Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat Production | 37.0 MMT | +8.5% | +34% |
| Barley Production | 15.5 MMT | +12.5% in yields | +32% (volume), +26% (yields) |
| Wheat Exports | 27.0 MMT | +3.3 MMT | +7.3 MMT |
| Barley Exports | 8.6 MMT | Near record | Second-highest on record |
Impact on Black Sea Wheat and Barley Markets
The sharp increase in Australian exportable surpluses is bearish for Black Sea wheat and barley markets, particularly into Asia and the Middle East where exporters from Russia and Ukraine directly compete with Australian origins. With Australian wheat exports up by 3.3 million tonnes year-on-year, Black Sea suppliers may need to offer more competitive FOB values to defend market share in Southeast Asia and North Africa.
The timing of Australia’s export campaign overlaps with the peak Black Sea shipping window, amplifying competitive pressure. Traders should closely track Australian FOB indications and basis levels, as the additional supply could compress global wheat and barley price premiums through Q2–Q3 2025, narrowing spreads between origins and potentially capping upside in Black Sea markets.
Source: Market Data
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