- Bearish: Russian grade 4 wheat prices in the European part fell to RUB 13,050/ton ($165/ton), the lowest level in 18 months amid oversupply.
- Bearish: January wheat exports from Russian ports are 46% below the five-year average, highlighting weak external demand.
- Bearish: Logistics bottlenecks and slow rail movement are trapping grain inland, intensifying price pressure in surplus regions.
- Neutral to Bearish: Select export shipments to Israel, Cameroon, and Congo provide some demand but are insufficient to offset overall weakness.
Russian Wheat Prices Hit 18-Month Low
Russian domestic wheat prices continued to decline in mid-January, reaching their lowest levels in 18 months as abundant supply and weak export demand weigh on the market. Grade 4 wheat in the European part of Russia fell to RUB 13,050 per ton ($165/ton) as of January 14, down from RUB 13,150/ton ($168/ton) a week earlier and RUB 13,250/ton ($172/ton) a month ago. Current levels are now approaching the July 2024 low of RUB 12,900/ton ($146/ton).
Regional Price Pressure and Logistics Constraints
Price pressure has intensified in surplus-producing inland regions. In the Central and Volga regions, where strong harvests boosted available stocks, wheat prices dropped by around RUB 400/ton over the past month. Central region wheat is trading near RUB 11,700/ton, while Volga region values have declined to approximately RUB 11,500/ton. Slow rail logistics are limiting the flow of grain from these inland surplus areas to export terminals, amplifying the local oversupply and reinforcing the downward trend in prices.
Export Activity Remains Subdued
Russian wheat exports started the year on a weak footing. Ports shipped only 0.7 million tons of wheat during the first two weeks of January, compared to 0.8 million tons over the same period last year and well below the five-year average of 1.3 million tons. The 46% shortfall versus historical norms underscores Russia’s reduced competitiveness on the global market, likely reflecting a combination of aggressive pricing from competing origins and softer import demand.
Notable Export Shipments to Niche Destinations
Despite generally weak export flows, several noteworthy shipments were completed. The port of Vysotsk in the Leningrad Region handled its first wheat export in five years, loading 33,400 tons of feed wheat destined for Israel. Meanwhile, Kaliningrad facilitated the export of 30,300 tons of food wheat, including 24,000 tons shipped to Cameroon and 6,300 tons to Congo. These deals highlight Russia’s continued presence in select niche and emerging markets, even as overall export volumes lag.
Market Outlook and Trading Implications
The market backdrop remains firmly bearish. Ample domestic supply, compounded by logistics bottlenecks, is creating a build-up of inventory in inland regions. Domestic consumers are reportedly holding high stocks and showing limited willingness to step in aggressively on the buy side, further pressuring prices. Unless there is a meaningful improvement in rail capacity or a rebound in export inquiries, additional downside in inland wheat prices cannot be ruled out. Traders and market participants will be watching closely for any signs of stronger export demand or policy and logistics changes that could help balance the market in the coming weeks.
Russian Wheat Price Snapshot
| Region / Grade | Date / Period | Price (RUB/ton) | Price (USD/ton) | Change vs Previous Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| European Russia, Grade 4 | Jan 14, 2026 | 13,050 | 165 | -100 RUB vs previous week -200 RUB vs previous month |
| European Russia, Grade 4 | Previous Week | 13,150 | 168 | – |
| European Russia, Grade 4 | Previous Month | 13,250 | 172 | – |
| European Russia, Grade 4 | July 2024 Low | 12,900 | 146 | – |
| Central Region (domestic) | Current | 11,700 | N/A | ≈ -400 RUB vs previous month |
| Volga Region (domestic) | Current | 11,500 | N/A | ≈ -400 RUB vs previous month |
Russian Wheat Export Volumes
| Period | Export Volume (million tons) | Comparison | Deviation vs 5-Year Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| First 2 weeks of Jan 2026 | 0.7 | Below 0.8 last year | 46% below 1.3 million ton 5-year average |
| First 2 weeks of Jan (5-year avg) | 1.3 | Benchmark | – |
Recent Export Shipments by Destination
| Port | Destination | Wheat Type | Volume (tons) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vysotsk (Leningrad Region) | Israel | Feed wheat | 33,400 |
| Kaliningrad | Cameroon | Food wheat | 24,000 |
| Kaliningrad | Congo | Food wheat | 6,300 |
| Kaliningrad | Total | Food wheat | 30,300 |
Source: Market Data
Leave a Reply