- Surging Russian yields: Record 20.2 c/ha (+20.8% y/y) and strong Central Federal District performance significantly expand Black Sea soybean exportable supply.
- Weaker EU demand: EU soybean imports down 14% to 6.61 M tonnes in 2025/26 MY as domestic output and processing rise, curbing external buying needs.
- Bearish price pressure: Growing supply amid softening EU import demand points to a downward bias for spot soybean prices and shifting trade flows.
Russian Soybean Yield Performance
Russian soybean production set a new benchmark in 2025, with average yields reaching 20.2 centners per hectare, a robust 20.8% increase versus 2024 and 27% above the 2020 level of 15.9 c/ha. The five-year average now stands at 17.1 c/ha, underscoring a structural improvement in productivity.
| Year / Metric | Yield (c/ha) | Change vs Previous Period |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 15.9 | – |
| Five-year average | 17.1 | – |
| 2024 | 16.7 (implied) | Base for 2025 +20.8% |
| 2025 | 20.2 | +20.8% vs 2024 / +27% vs 2020 |
Top-Performing Russian Regions
The Central Federal District dominated Russia’s soybean performance, with all top five regions located in this area. Tambov Oblast led decisively, supported by strong yield gains and favorable growing conditions.
| Region (Russia) | Yield 2025 (c/ha) | Year-on-Year Change |
|---|---|---|
| Tambov Oblast | 27.5 | +54.0% |
| Lipetsk Oblast | 25.3 | +38.8% |
| Ryazan Oblast | 25.1 | +25.1% |
| Kursk Oblast | 24.4 | +18.1% |
| Kaluga Oblast | 24.3 | +18.9% |
EU Soybean Import Trends
According to European Commission data, soybean imports into the EU-27 reached about 6.61 million tonnes by 11 January in the 2025/26 marketing year, which began on 1 July. This represents a 14% decline compared with the same point in the previous season, reflecting stronger domestic production, expanding processing capacity, and generally ample global supply.
| Marketing Year (EU-27) | Period Covered | Soybean Imports (million tonnes) | Change vs Previous Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 (as of mid-January) | 1 July – 11 January | ~7.69 (implied) | Base |
| 2025/26 (as of 11 January) | 1 July – 11 January | 6.61 | -14.0% |
Market Impact and Price Outlook
The combination of record Russian soybean yields and reduced EU import demand establishes a clearly bearish backdrop for spot prices. Expanded Black Sea availability is meeting a more self-sufficient EU market, easing competition for physical cargoes and likely compressing basis levels. Unless additional demand emerges from alternative destinations or Russia’s domestic crushing sector absorbs more volume, the supply-demand imbalance should continue to weigh on prices.
Traders and originators will be watching for shifts in trade flows away from the traditional Black Sea-to-Europe corridor toward buyers in the Middle East, North Africa, and Asia. Over time, the EU’s rising self-sufficiency could structurally reduce its reliance on imported soybeans, forcing Black Sea exporters to diversify their customer base and adjust pricing strategies accordingly.
Source: Market Data
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