- Black Sea wheat prices firmed: Russian 12.5% protein wheat rose to $227.50/ton FOB and Ukrainian 11.5% to $227/ton on strong demand and constrained supply.
- Export flows pressured by weather: Russian January exports are still projected at 2.8–3.0 MMT, but port disruptions have forced analysts to trim earlier forecasts.
- Domestic Russian prices supported by cheaper freight: Lower rail and road costs lifted inland wheat prices across Southern and Volga regions.
- Ukrainian farmers reluctant sellers: Processors and traders are active buyers, but producers are holding stocks in anticipation of further price gains.
- Overall sentiment moderately bullish: Near‑term supply constraints and solid demand outweigh pressure from good winter crop conditions and record yield reports.
International Wheat Price Comparison
| Origin / Grade | Protein | Delivery | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | 12.5% | Jan–Feb, FOB | $227.50/ton | +$1.50 |
| Ukraine | 11.5% | FOB | $227/ton | +$1.00 |
| Argentina | — | FOB | $217/ton | +$5.00 |
| France | — | FOB | $230/ton | −$2.00 |
| Romania | — | FOB | $233/ton | Unchanged |
| United States | — | FOB | $227/ton | Unchanged |
Russian Domestic Wheat Prices
| Region / Location | Grade / Delivery | Price Range | Change | Currency / Terms |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Russia | Grade 4, 12.5% protein, EXW elevator | RUB 13,500–14,000/ton | +RUB 150 | Excl. VAT |
| Volga Region | Grade 4, 12.5% protein, EXW elevator | RUB 12,300–12,500/ton | +RUB 300 | Excl. VAT |
| Central Russia | Grade 4, 12.5% protein, EXW elevator | RUB 12,000–12,500/ton | Unchanged | Excl. VAT |
| Siberia | Grade 4, 12.5% protein, EXW elevator | RUB 9,200–10,500/ton | — | Excl. VAT |
| Deep‑water ports | Road delivery | RUB 15,200–15,300/ton | Stable | Port, road |
| Deep‑water ports | Rail delivery | RUB 16,000/ton | Stable | Port, rail |
| Shallow‑water ports | Road / rail | RUB 14,500/ton | Stable | Port |
Ukrainian Wheat Market Snapshot
| Market Segment | Grade | Price Range | Change | Currency / Terms |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domestic bids | Second‑grade food wheat | UAH 9,600–10,600/ton | Modest increase | CPT |
| Domestic bids | Feed wheat | UAH 8,500–9,700/ton | Modest increase | CPT |
| Ports | Food‑grade wheat | $206–214/ton | Unchanged | CPT |
| Ports | Feed wheat | $198–208/ton | −$1 to −$2 | CPT |
Market Update and Sentiment
Black Sea export prices moved higher over January 13–20, led by Russian 12.5% protein wheat at $227.50/ton FOB and Ukrainian 11.5% at $227/ton. The narrow $0.50/ton spread underscores tight competition between the two origins, while Argentina posted the strongest weekly gains and French values eased slightly.
Russian exports reached about 1.2 MMT between January 1–19. Overall January shipments are still expected at 2.8–3.0 MMT, above last year’s 2.5 MMT but below the five‑year average of 3.24 MMT. Major analytical houses have trimmed earlier estimates by 0.2–0.5 MMT to around 3.0 MMT due to adverse weather at ports, highlighting short‑term export bottlenecks.
Domestically, Russian wheat prices firmed as lower rail and road freight costs improved net returns to sellers, with notable gains in Southern and Volga regions. Deep‑water and shallow‑water port prices were broadly stable, signaling that logistics, rather than outright demand weakness, is capping further upside for now.
In Ukraine, rising demand from processors and traders contrasts with farmer reluctance to sell, reflecting expectations of further price appreciation. Port feed wheat values eased marginally, but overall price action and producer behavior point to a moderately bullish tone.
Crop Conditions and Outlook
Winter crop conditions in Russia’s central European regions are reported as favorable, with substantial snow cover of 35–45 cm or more in Central and Volga regions expected to shield fields from upcoming below‑normal temperatures. Longer‑term supply potential is further underlined by record wheat yields in the Republic of Adygea, which reported 60 centners per hectare in 2025, the highest result in Russia.
Despite a constructive production outlook, immediate export flows remain constrained by weather‑related port disruptions and tightened nearby availability. This combination of short‑term logistical friction, strong international demand, and cautious farmer selling keeps overall market sentiment moderately bullish.
Source: Market Data
Leave a Reply