- Prices Jump: Ukrainian sunflower seed values rose by UAH 1,000/t to UAH 27,800-28,800/t CPT on stronger export demand and currency weakness.
- Export Support: Higher sunflower oil export prices and hryvnia depreciation versus the US dollar are underpinning the rally.
- Seller Rush: Producers accelerated sales to lock in margins, anticipating a possible near-term price correction.
- Risk Factors: Port attacks, energy grid deficits, and potential sunflower oil price declines pose downside risks to seed prices.
- Sentiment: Overall market mood is neutral to bearish despite the short-term bullish price move.
Ukrainian Sunflower Seed Market Update
Sunflower seed prices in Ukraine strengthened by an average of UAH 1,000/t from the beginning of January’s second ten-day period. Values for basic quality oilseeds on a CPT basis (delivery to processing facilities) increased from UAH 26,500-28,000/t to UAH 27,800-28,800/t. The rally has drawn more sellers into the market as producers move to secure current price levels.
| Period | Quality / Basis | Price Range (UAH/t) | Change (UAH/t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Early January (before 2nd ten-day period) | Basic quality, CPT to processors | 26,500–28,000 | — |
| Current (2nd ten-day period) | Basic quality, CPT to processors | 27,800–28,800 | +1,000 (avg.) |
Processing companies are paying premiums for higher oil content, with particular interest in seeds containing 51–52% oil. The improved price environment triggered a noticeable surge in raw material supply as farmers and suppliers attempt to monetize current valuations before any reversal.
Drivers Behind the Price Rally
Market participants primarily link the sunflower seed price gains to two factors: a substantial rise in export sunflower oil quotations and depreciation of the Ukrainian hryvnia against the US dollar. Stronger downstream product prices have improved crush margins, enabling processors to raise bids, while currency weakness has enhanced the competitiveness of Ukrainian exports in dollar terms.
Despite active trading and robust demand so far, industry sources caution that current strength may be temporary. The sharp increase in seller activity suggests producers view these levels as an attractive exit point rather than a new long-term floor.
Risks, Outlook and Market Sentiment
Overall sentiment is shifting toward neutral to bearish even as prices post short-term gains. Many market observers see a high probability of sunflower oil price declines in the near term, which would quickly feed through into weaker seed prices. Any deterioration in export values could therefore pressure crushing margins and prompt a reassessment of current bids.
In addition, ongoing attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure and mounting energy grid deficits threaten logistics and processing stability. These structural risks could disrupt crush operations, delay shipments, and temper demand for raw seeds. For now, the window appears to favor sellers seeking to lock in margins, while buyers remain cautious about committing at elevated levels amid rising downside risks.
Source: Market Data
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