- Bullish: Ukrainian domestic rapeseed bids rallied to UAH 22,600–23,700/t EXW on hryvnia weakness, supporting farmer selling and internal demand.
- Bearish: EU rapeseed import demand slid 43% y/y to 1.85 MMT in H1 2025/26, sharply limiting export opportunities for Ukrainian origin.
- Neutral-to-bearish: Prospective China–Canada canola duty cuts may reshape global flows, but seasonal oversupply and strong Canadian biofuel demand cap upside for Black Sea rapeseed.
Market Overview
Ukrainian rapeseed export values held steady last week at USD 540–545/t CPT-port, with no notable moves in seaborne quotations. In contrast, domestic bids from export-oriented companies firmed sharply to UAH 22,600–23,700/t EXW, largely on the back of hryvnia depreciation against the US dollar rather than any fundamental tightening in supply.
The widening spread between stable dollar-denominated export prices and rising local-currency bids reflects currency pass-through effects. While this supports farmer revenue in local terms, it raises procurement costs for crushers and exporters, potentially eroding margins if international buyers resist higher offer levels.
Global Trade and Policy Developments
Global attention centered on China–Canada trade talks, where preliminary agreements signal a reduction in Chinese import duties on Canadian canola to 15% by March 1, 2025. Duties on rapeseed meal and several other agricultural products are also expected to be suspended, improving the competitiveness of Canadian oilseed products in the Chinese market.
In exchange, Canada is set to allow imports of 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles at roughly 6% duty, linking agricultural access to industrial trade concessions. While this may improve off-take for Canadian canola, the timing coincides with seasonally abundant global supplies, which could dampen any immediate price reaction and limit spillover benefits for Ukrainian rapeseed.
EU Supply, Demand, and Import Dynamics
The European Commission projects the 2025 EU rapeseed crop at 20.16 MMT, a 20% increase from 16.77 MMT in 2024. This larger harvest underpins higher crush expectations, with processing forecast at 24.68 MMT. Enhanced internal supply has significantly curtailed the EU’s need for imported rapeseed in the 2025/26 season.
During the first half of 2025/26, total EU rapeseed imports dropped to just 1.85 MMT, down 43% from 3.23 MMT a year earlier. Ukraine preserved its role as the EU’s leading external supplier with 1.06 MMT and a 57% market share, yet its shipments fell 47% from 2.02 MMT last season. Australian and early Canadian volumes also weakened, although Canadian exports later surged to 1.13 MMT—an almost tenfold, 999% increase—driven primarily by biofuel demand.
Additional supplies arrived from Moldova and Serbia, with some Moldovan-declared shipments likely representing Ukrainian origin redirected via alternative transit routes. This re-routing underscores both logistical flexibility and the competitive pressure facing Ukrainian exporters amid shrinking EU import demand.
Price and Volume Snapshot
| Market | Parameter | Current Level | Comparison / Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine rapeseed (export) | Price | USD 540–545/t CPT-port | Stable w/w |
| Ukraine rapeseed (domestic) | Bid range | UAH 22,600–23,700/t EXW | Stronger on hryvnia depreciation |
| EU rapeseed production 2025 | Harvest | 20.16 MMT | +20% vs 16.77 MMT in 2024 |
| EU rapeseed crush 2025 | Processing | 24.68 MMT | Higher on larger local supply |
| EU rapeseed imports H1 2025/26 | Total volume | 1.85 MMT | -43% vs 3.23 MMT y/y |
| Ukraine → EU rapeseed H1 2025/26 | Shipments | 1.06 MMT | -47% vs 2.02 MMT; 57% share |
| Canada → EU rapeseed | Shipments | 1.13 MMT | +999% y/y; mainly for biofuels |
| China–Canada canola duties | Import duty | 15% (target by Mar 1, 2025) | Down from current levels |
| China EV imports from Canada | Quota & duty | 49,000 units at ~6% duty | Part of broader trade package |
Implications for Ukrainian Rapeseed
The sharp 43% contraction in EU import demand, driven by a strong domestic crop, is structurally bearish for Ukrainian rapeseed exports. Even with a dominant 57% share of EU imports, Ukraine’s volumes are running at less than half last year’s pace, revealing underlying demand weakness rather than solely logistical or short-term disruptions.
Currency-led gains in domestic bids risk compressing margins for crushers and exporters who must compete in an oversupplied international market. With Canadian GM canola increasingly targeting both EU and Chinese biofuel chains, Ukrainian origin could face additional price pressure. Market participants should track hryvnia volatility, as further depreciation may widen the domestic–export price gap, complicating forward sales and hedging strategies for the remainder of the 2025/26 season.
Source: Market Data
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