- Rail shipments up 18% YoY: Ukrainian oilseed cake and meal rail exports reached 114,400 tons by January 13, signaling strong demand despite logistical challenges.
- Western corridors dominate: Western border crossings now handle 76% of meal and 65% of cake rail freight, sharply reducing the role of seaports.
- Seaport share declines: Seaports account for just 24% of meal and 35% of cake exports, underscoring a structural shift away from Black Sea routes.
- Infrastructure pressure risk: Concentration on land routes raises the likelihood of congestion and higher rail and western corridor freight rates.
- Market tone: Neutral to slightly bearish for Black Sea port utilization; supportive for rail and western land-route freight margins.
Ukrainian Oilseed Meal & Cake Export Shift
Ukrainian oilseed meal and cake exports have undergone a notable logistics pivot in January 2025, with rail becoming the primary channel and western border crossings emerging as the dominant export routes.
Rail Volume Dynamics
As of January 13, rail shipments of oilseed cake and meal totaled 114,400 tons, an 18% increase compared with the same period in 2024. Despite this strong opening, JSC Ukrzaliznytsia expects a modest 1.3% decline in total rail freight volumes for these products by December 2025, pointing to only a slight cooling later in the year.
Route Redistribution: Land vs. Sea
The major development is a clear redistribution of export routes in favor of western land corridors. For oilseed meal, 76% of freight volumes in January moved through western border crossings, while seaports handled just 24%. This marks a reversal of traditional patterns that favored Black Sea port shipments.
Oilseed cake exports show a similar pattern. Of the 46,100 tons shipped by rail in January, around 30,000 tons (65%) transited via western border crossings, with approximately 16,100 tons (35%) routed through seaports.
| Product | Metric | Total Volume | Western Border Share | Seaport Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oilseed Meal | Rail exports (as of Jan 13, 2025) | 114,400 tons | 76% | 24% |
| Oilseed Cake | Rail exports (Jan 2025) | 46,100 tons | 65% (~30,000 tons) | 35% (~16,100 tons) |
Market Analysis & Impact
The intensified reliance on western land routes underscores the ongoing reorientation of Ukrainian export logistics away from traditional Black Sea channels. For freight coordinators and traders, this implies sustained demand for rail capacity towards EU borders, greater exposure to potential congestion at western crossings, and the likelihood of firm to rising land-route freight rates.
At the same time, Black Sea port utilization faces a neutral to slightly bearish outlook as volumes continue to be diverted inland. Nonetheless, the 18% year-on-year increase in meal exports highlights resilient international demand for Ukrainian oilseed processing products, even as exporters adapt to evolving security and infrastructure constraints.
Traders should closely monitor capacity at key western border points and any policy or infrastructure changes that could either alleviate bottlenecks or further tighten rail logistics through 2025.
Source: Market Data
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