- US Exports Drive Upgrade: USDA raises 2025/26 global soybean oil export forecast to 13.69 million tons, entirely on stronger projected U.S. shipments.
- U.S. Export Surge: U.S. soybean oil export outlook lifted by 336,000 tons to 544,000 tons, signaling stronger U.S. presence in global trade.
- Stable Russian Role: Russia’s soybean oil export forecast remains unchanged at 700,000 tons, implying steady Black Sea supply participation.
- Higher Global Output: World soybean oil production in 2025/26 seen at 71.1 million tons, up 1.1 million tons year-on-year, adding to overall supply.
- China as Net Exporter: China is expected to stay a net exporter for the second year, reducing import demand and reshaping traditional trade flows.
- Slight Bearish Tilt for Black Sea: Expanded global supply and stronger U.S. exports could pressure prices and intensify competition for Black Sea exporters.
USDA Soybean Oil Export and Production Outlook for 2025/26
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service has raised its global soybean oil export forecast for the 2025/26 marketing year to 13.69 million tons, an upward revision of 336,000 tons. The entire increase is attributed to higher projected U.S. shipments, reflecting stronger export competitiveness and availability.
U.S. soybean oil exports are now projected at 544,000 tons, up by 336,000 tons from the previous estimate. In contrast, Russia’s soybean oil export forecast is left unchanged at 700,000 tons, signaling a steady outlook for Black Sea-origin supply within the global vegetable oil trade matrix.
On the production side, global soybean oil output in 2025/26 is forecast at 71.1 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.1 million tons. This incremental growth in supply, combined with the upwardly revised export capacity, adds to the overall availability of soybean oil on the world market.
China’s Evolving Role in Soybean Oil Trade
The USDA expects China to remain a net exporter of soybean oil for the second consecutive year, supported by record export volumes and declining imports. This marks a structural shift compared to the 2012/13 season, when China was the world’s largest soybean oil importer.
This transformation is underpinned by extensive investment in domestic oilseed processing capacity, which has elevated China to the position of global production leader. As a result, China’s reduced import needs and growing export presence are reshaping traditional trade routes and competitive dynamics across key destination markets.
Key Volume Forecasts and Year-on-Year Changes
| Item | 2025/26 Forecast (million tons) | Change vs. Previous Estimate (million tons) | Year-on-Year Change (million tons) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global Soybean Oil Exports | 13.69 | +0.336 | n/a |
| U.S. Soybean Oil Exports | 0.544 | +0.336 | n/a |
| Russia Soybean Oil Exports | 0.700 | 0.000 | n/a |
| Global Soybean Oil Production | 71.10 | n/a | +1.10 |
Implications for Black Sea Vegetable Oil Markets
The combination of higher global soybean oil production and expanded U.S. export capacity introduces a neutral to slightly bearish tone for Black Sea vegetable oil exporters. Additional U.S. supply into key destination markets may weigh on international prices, challenging the competitiveness of Black Sea-origin soybean and other vegetable oils.
Russia’s steady export forecast at 700,000 tons suggests no immediate supply shock from the Black Sea region itself. However, with China shifting from a major importer to a net exporter, demand in one of the historically largest consumption centers is structurally lower. This could redirect trade flows toward alternative markets, intensifying price competition for Black Sea exporters in regions where they have traditionally held strong positions.
Overall, the revised USDA outlook points to a more crowded export landscape, where marginal changes in freight, currency, and quality premiums will play an increasingly important role in determining regional price realization and market share for Black Sea suppliers.
Source: Market Data
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