- Export Decline: Global soybean oil exports from seven key suppliers are projected to fall by 0.4–0.5 million tonnes in Q1 2026 versus a year earlier.
- Argentina Weakness: Argentine Q1 2026 exports are forecast to drop to 1.3 million tonnes from 1.5 million tonnes amid slower processing ahead of the new harvest.
- China’s Export Surge: China has emerged as a major exporter, with Q4 2025 shipments jumping to 510–530K tonnes, roughly four times the prior year’s level.
- Tightening Balance: Reduced soybean oil availability versus palm oil is mildly supportive for prices and may boost demand for Black Sea sunflower oil.
- Regional Trade Shift: China’s changing export flows are reshaping Asian trade patterns, creating potential opportunities for Ukrainian and Russian sunflower oil.
Global Soybean Oil Export Outlook
Oil World analysts project an accelerated decline in global soybean oil exports during the first quarter of 2026. Shipments from seven key supplier countries are expected to be 0.4–0.5 million tonnes lower than in the same period of 2025, even as China increases its own purchases by around 200,000 tonnes. The tightening balance underscores a more supportive pricing environment for soybean oil relative to competing vegetable oils.
Changes by Major Exporter
| Exporter / Period | Q4 2024 Exports (’000 t) | Q4 2025 Exports (’000 t) | Q1 2025 Exports (’000 t) | Q1 2026 Exports (’000 t, est.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 2,000 | 1,700 | 1,500 | 1,300 |
| China | 126 | 510–530 | n/a | n/a |
| Seven key exporters (total) | 2,820 (calc.) | 2,620 | n/a | −400 to −500 vs Q1 2025 |
Argentina is expected to post the sharpest export contraction. Q1 2026 soybean oil shipments are forecast at 1.3 million tonnes, down from 1.5 million tonnes a year earlier, as soybean processing capacity utilization slows ahead of the new harvest arrival at the end of March. The United States is also anticipated to reduce exports during this period, contributing to the overall decline from the seven key suppliers.
In Q4 2025, combined exports from the seven major countries had already fallen by 0.2 million tonnes year-on-year to 2.62 million tonnes. Argentine supplies dropped to 1.7 million tonnes from 2.0 million tonnes, while demand from India and Nepal remained subdued, limiting off-take despite competitive pricing at times.
China’s Growing Role in Soybean Oil Trade
China has rapidly transformed into a significant soybean oil exporter. In October–December 2025, Chinese exports are estimated at 510,000–530,000 tonnes, a fourfold jump from 126,000 tonnes in the same period of 2024. Major destinations include India, North and South Korea, Malaysia, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Vietnam, and Singapore, underscoring China’s rising influence on Asian vegetable oil trade flows.
Implications for Black Sea Oilseeds and Sunflower Oil
The outlook is neutral to slightly bullish for the Black Sea oilseed complex. Reduced global soybean oil availability versus palm oil supports relatively firmer soybean oil prices, which can enhance the competitiveness of Black Sea sunflower oil. Limited Argentine processing and tightening global supply are likely to open additional demand opportunities for Ukrainian and Russian sunflower oil in markets that traditionally rely on soybean oil, especially in Asia where China is reshaping regional trade flows through its expanding export footprint.
Traders should closely track Chinese export dynamics, as shifts in the country’s soybean oil export volumes and destinations will be key in determining regional spreads, price competitiveness versus palm oil, and the scale of substitution demand for Black Sea sunflower oil across Asian buyers.
Source: Market Data
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