- Russia Export Upgrade: IGC raised Russia’s 2025/26 wheat export forecast to 44.2 million tons, the first upward revision in five months, supported by a higher harvest estimate of 87.6 million tons.
- EU Export Downgrade: EU wheat export outlook was cut to 31.3 million tons, further widening Russia’s competitive advantage in global wheat markets.
- Saudi Buying Surge: Saudi Arabia’s GFSA purchased 907,000 tons of milling wheat at $258.50–$264.84/ton C&F, 52% above the initial 595,000-ton tender target.
- Global Supply Growth: IGC lifted global wheat production to 842 million tons and total grains to a record 2.461 billion tons, underscoring ample overall supply.
- Market Sentiment: Bullish for Black Sea wheat exports on stronger Russian production and robust Middle East demand at current price levels.
Russia and EU Wheat Export Outlook
The International Grains Council increased Russia’s wheat export forecast for 2025/26 to 44.2 million tons, a 0.6 million ton rise from the previous outlook and the first positive revision in five months. This was accompanied by a higher Russian wheat harvest estimate of 87.6 million tons, up from 86.5 million tons, and a total grain harvest of 126.5 million tons versus 125 million tons earlier.
In contrast, the IGC cut the EU’s wheat export projection to 31.3 million tons from 33 million tons. This divergence strengthens Russia’s share in key import markets at a time when Black Sea origin remains highly competitive on price and logistics.
Saudi Arabia Wheat Tender Results
Saudi Arabia’s General Food Security Authority concluded a major wheat tender on January 16, securing 907,000 tons of milling wheat for April–May 2026 delivery. The purchase volume far exceeded the initially planned 595,000 tons and was sourced from the EU, Black Sea region, North and South America, and Australia, with sellers free to choose origin.
| Trader | Volume (tons) | Price ($/ton C&F) | Destination Port |
|---|---|---|---|
| Olam | 60,000 | $258.50 | Jeddah |
| Solaris | 60,000 | $259.06 | Jeddah |
| Ameropa | 60,000 | $261.97 | Jeddah |
| Olam | 60,000 | $262.00 | Jeddah |
| Solaris | 60,000 | $262.06 | Jeddah |
| Ameropa | 60,000 | $258.97 | Yanbu |
| Solaris | 60,000 | $260.06 | Yanbu |
| Cargill | 60,000 | $260.63 | Yanbu |
| Cargill | 60,000 | $260.99 | Yanbu |
| Soufflet | 60,000 | $261.65 | Yanbu |
| Aston | 65,000 | $261.83 | Yanbu |
| Cargill | 60,000 | $259.30 | Dammam |
| Louis Dreyfus | 67,000 | $264.84 | Dammam |
| Solaris | 55,000 | $262.06 | Jizan |
The final 907,000-ton purchase represents a 202% increase versus the 300,000 tons booked in Saudi Arabia’s prior tender in late November 2025. The tight C&F price band around $259–$265/ton across multiple global trading houses points to highly competitive offers, with Black Sea origin expected to feature strongly.
Global Wheat and Grain Balance
Globally, the IGC raised its wheat harvest forecast to 842 million tons, 12 million tons above the previous estimate and substantially higher than the 801 million tons recorded in 2024/25. Total grain production is now projected at a record 2.461 billion tons, up 31 million tons from the earlier outlook, underscoring comfortable overall supply despite regional shifts in export capacity.
Market Implications and Sentiment
The combination of upgraded Russian export potential and a sizeable Saudi wheat tender underpins a bullish tone for Black Sea wheat through Q2 2026. While global supply is ample, Russia’s expanding exportable surplus and strong Middle East demand are likely to keep Black Sea values well supported at current C&F levels, particularly as EU export prospects soften.
Source: Market Data
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