- Bearish sunflower oil Black Sea: FOB Black Sea prices fell $30.00/t to $1,370.00/t, reversing recent gains and signaling potential supply pressure.
- Divergent soybean complex: FOB Brazil soybean oil dropped sharply, while US CBOT saw modest losses and EU prices hit records, creating regional arbitrage opportunities.
- Palm oil strength: Palm oil and palm kernel oil FOB Malaysia rallied to new highs, highlighting tightening supplies in key tropical oil segments.
- Mixed meal markets: Sunflower and EU soybean meals hit new lows, while Brazilian, Chinese, and EU rapeseed meals strengthened to record or maximum levels.
- Oilseeds resilience: Brazilian and US soybeans advanced, with Brazil posting record highs, offsetting weakness in Chinese soybeans and soft rapeseed gains.
Vegetable Oils Market Update
Global vegetable oil markets on January 16 showed mixed performance across regions and products, with sharp weakness in Black Sea sunflower oil and Brazilian soybean oil contrasting with strength in palm oil and EU-traded vegetable oils.
| Commodity | Location / Contract | Price (USD/t) | Change (USD/t) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunflower oil | FOB Black Sea | $1,370.00 | -30.00 | Reverses recent gains; 2.1% daily drop |
| Sunflower oil | CIF Mumbai, India | $1,402.95 | +4.98 | New record high; strong Asian demand |
| Soybean oil | FOB Brazil | $1,136.49 | -47.36 | Sharpest decline among regions |
| Soybean oil | US CBOT | $1,159.85 | -7.94 | Moderate downside |
| Soybean oil | Dalian, China | $1,165.60 | -15.57 | Week’s minimum |
| Soybean oil | FOB EU | $1,292.36 | +4.72 | Record high; maintains premium |
| Rapeseed oil | FOB Netherlands | $1,188.68 | -12.57 | New price floor |
| Palm oil | FOB Malaysia | $1,027.34 | +17.41 | Reaches maximum values |
| Palm kernel oil (RBD) | FOB Malaysia | $1,885.53 | +19.90 | Record levels |
The steep $30.00/t decline in Black Sea sunflower oil to $1,370.00/t contrasts with the record $1,402.95/t CIF Mumbai price, widening the premium to $32.95/t and underlining strong Asian import demand alongside higher logistics and freight costs.
Soybean oil showed pronounced regional divergence: Brazil led the downside with a $47.36/t fall, while EU FOB soybean oil climbed to record highs, underscoring persistent European premium pricing even as American and Chinese benchmarks weakened.
Palm oil and palm kernel oil FOB Malaysia continued to rally, with both products hitting maximum or record levels, reflecting tightening supplies and supporting the broader vegetable oil complex despite softness in sunflower and rapeseed oils.
Meals Market Update
| Commodity | Location / Contract | Price (USD/t) | Change (USD/t) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunflower meal | CIF France | $237.74 | -0.19 | New minimum |
| Soybean meal | FOB Brazil | $321.39 | +1.99 | Modest gain |
| Soybean meal | Dalian, China | $451.06 | +1.30 | Record high |
| Soybean meal | US CBOT | $319.67 | +0.88 | Small increase |
| Soybean meal | CIF EU | $366.16 | -5.97 | Lowest on record |
| Rapeseed meal | FOB EU | $253.97 | +9.08 | Maximum values |
Meal markets were mixed: sunflower meal CIF France and soybean meal CIF EU both set new lows, pointing to softer demand or ample supply in Europe, while soybean meal in Brazil, China, and on CBOT firmed, and rapeseed meal FOB EU jumped to maximum levels.
Oilseeds Market Update
| Commodity | Location / Contract | Price (USD/t) | Change (USD/t) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soybeans | FOB Brazil | $426.86 | +14.53 | Record high |
| Soybeans | US CBOT | $388.65 | +1.75 | Week’s high |
| Soybeans | Dalian, China | $610.93 | -11.09 | Week’s minimum |
| Rapeseed | MATIF France | $547.37 | +0.72 | Marginal gain |
Oilseed benchmarks generally strengthened, led by Brazilian soybeans reaching a record $426.86/t and US CBOT soybeans touching the week’s high, while Chinese soybeans retreated to the week’s minimum and MATIF rapeseed posted only marginal gains.
Market Analysis and Arbitrage Signals
The $30.00/t slide in Black Sea sunflower oil suggests either rising regional supply or softer export demand, turning the short-term tone bearish for Black Sea-origin sellers even as Asian buyers pay a premium into Mumbai.
Within the soybean oil complex, the approximately $156.00/t discount of FOB Brazil versus FOB EU underscores strong geographic price spreads. This gap may redirect South American flows toward price-sensitive Asian markets, while Europe preserves a high-premium, tight-supply profile.
Record highs in palm derivatives and select meal and oilseed contracts indicate tightening supplies in specific segments. This strength helps underpin the broader oilseed complex despite clear pressure in sunflower and rapeseed oils and select European meal markets.
Source: Market Data
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