- Exports Down 10%: Russian wheat shipments fell to 26.7 million tons in Jul–Dec 2025 from a record 29.7 million tons a year earlier.
- Turkey & Iran Step Up Buying: Turkey’s imports jumped 2.2x to 4.4 million tons, while Iran’s surged 2.9x to 1.7 million tons, moving it to third place.
- Diversifying Demand: Pakistan forecasts 1.5 million tons of wheat imports in 2025/26, with Kazakhstan positioning to capture part of this demand.
- Price Risk Tilted Up: Lower Black Sea export availability alongside robust regional demand keeps sentiment neutral to mildly bullish.
Russian Wheat Export Performance, Jul–Dec 2025
Russian wheat exports totaled 26.7 million tons in July–December 2025, a 10% decline from the record 29.7 million tons shipped in the same period of 2024, according to the Rusagrotrans Analytical Center. The contraction points to tighter export availability from the Black Sea region, either due to lower production, higher domestic use, or policy-driven retention.
| Period | Russian Wheat Exports (million tons) | Year-on-Year Change |
|---|---|---|
| Jul–Dec 2024 | 29.7 | Record level |
| Jul–Dec 2025 | 26.7 | -10% |
Top Importers of Russian Wheat
Egypt remained the largest buyer of Russian wheat, taking 5.1 million tons in the first half of the 2025/26 marketing year. Turkey secured second place with nearly 4.4 million tons, more than doubling its purchases. Iran showed the sharpest growth, advancing from eighth to third place with 1.7 million tons. Bangladesh imported 1.45 million tons, Israel 1.1 million tons, and Sudan nearly doubled intake to about 1 million tons.
| Rank | Country | Russian Wheat Imports (million tons) | Notable Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Egypt | 5.1 | Maintained top position |
| 2 | Turkey | 4.4 | 2.2x increase |
| 3 | Iran | 1.7 | 2.9x increase; up from 8th place |
| 4 | Bangladesh | 1.45 | Stable key buyer |
| 5 | Israel | 1.1 | Fifth-largest importer |
| 6 | Sudan | ~1.0 | Nearly doubled imports |
Kazakhstan–Pakistan Grain Trade Outlook
Parallel to shifts in Russian export flows, Kazakhstan and Pakistan are exploring new grain supply arrangements. Pakistan projects wheat import needs of 1.5 million tons for the 2025/26 marketing year, creating room for increased Kazakh participation. Bilateral agricultural trade between the two countries expanded by 5% over the first eleven months of 2025, underscoring deepening commercial ties and a gradual diversification away from traditional Russian-centric sourcing.
| Country Pair / Metric | Value | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Pakistan projected wheat imports (2025/26) | 1.5 million tons | Potential demand for Kazakh and Black Sea wheat |
| Kazakhstan–Pakistan agricultural trade (Jan–Nov 2025) | +5% | Year-on-year increase |
Market Implications and Sentiment
The 10% decline in Russian wheat exports tightens available Black Sea supply at a time of strong buying from Turkey and Iran. This combination of constrained export volume and resilient regional demand supports a neutral to bullish price outlook. Traders should monitor whether Russian export volumes weaken further into 2026 and how intensifying competition among Egypt, Turkey, Iran, and emerging buyers such as Pakistan and Sudan feeds into FOB pricing and freight spreads.
Source: Market Data
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