- Production growth: Indonesia’s 2025 corn output rose 6.44% year-on-year to 16.11 million tonnes, supported by expanded acreage.
- Acreage expansion: Harvested area increased 6.73% to 2.72 million hectares, underpinning the production gains.
- Short-term outlook: December 2025–February 2026 production is forecast at 4.22 million tonnes, up 0.71% from the prior year.
- Trade impact: The increase is neutral for Black Sea corn markets, as Indonesia remains a net importer in the near term.
Indonesia Corn Production Update
Indonesia’s Central Statistics Agency (BPS) reported national corn production at 16.11 million tonnes for the January–December 2025 period, a 6.44% increase versus 2024. The figures are based on dry grain corn at 14% moisture content, reflecting both favorable agronomic conditions and policy support for domestic feed grain output.
Monthly data show November 2025 production at 1.03 million tonnes, up from 0.98 million tonnes in November 2024, according to BPS Deputy Director for Distribution and Service Statistics Puji Ismartini. The improvement underscores steady gains through the latter part of the year.
Acreage Expansion as Key Driver
The primary driver behind the production increase was a notable expansion in harvested area. Total corn harvested area in 2025 reached 2.72 million hectares, representing a 6.73% year-on-year rise. This acreage growth more than offset any yield variability and underpins Indonesia’s ongoing push toward greater corn self-sufficiency.
BPS projects production of 4.22 million tonnes for the December 2025–February 2026 period, a modest 0.71% increase versus the same window a year earlier. The agency notes that these estimates remain subject to revision depending on weather patterns, pest pressure, and actual harvest timing across key producing regions.
Implications for International Corn Markets
Neutral for Black Sea Corn Markets. While Indonesia’s corn output growth supports a gradual reduction in structural import needs, the 6.44% annual production gain is unlikely to materially alter short-term trade flows. Indonesia remains a net importer, and its immediate demand for seaborne supplies, including from the Black Sea, should stay largely intact.
For Black Sea exporters, the key risk is longer term: if Indonesia sustains acreage-driven production growth and improves yields, Southeast Asia’s aggregate import demand could soften at the margin. This would slightly ease competition for alternative feed corn suppliers in the region, but any such impact will depend on multi-year production trends rather than a single season’s increase.
Corn Production and Area Data
| Period / Metric | 2024 | 2025 / Forecast | Change (YoY) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Corn Production (Jan–Dec, million tonnes) | 15.14 | 16.11 | +6.44% |
| Harvested Area (million hectares) | 2.55 | 2.72 | +6.73% |
| November Corn Production (million tonnes) | 0.98 | 1.03 | +5.10% |
| Production Forecast (Dec–Feb, million tonnes) | 4.19 | 4.22 | +0.71% |
Source: Market Data
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