- Bearish Russian exports: Russian grain exports fell 17.6% in H1 2025/26 MY to 33.9 million tons amid intensifying competition from the EU, Australia, and Argentina.
- Resilient Turkish demand: Turkey’s November grain imports surged 72% month-on-month to 1.37 million tons, with Russia supplying 92% of its wheat purchases.
- Diversification to Africa: Russian agricultural exports to Sudan more than doubled in 2025 to 1.7 million tons worth nearly $410 million, driven by wheat shipments.
- Logistics impact: Lower export volumes may ease congestion at Russian Black Sea terminals, while freight demand remains broadly stable due to shifting trade flows.
Russian Grain Export Performance
Russia exported 33.9 million tons of major grain crops in the first half of the 2025/26 marketing year, down 17.6% from 41.2 million tons a year earlier, according to the Russian Grain Union. Wheat remained the core export, accounting for 82.5% of total shipments at 27.9 million tons, a 14% year-on-year decline. Barley exports dropped 27.9% to 3.2 million tons, while corn exports fell 11.7% to 1.8 million tons.
RGU analyst Elena Tyurina linked the decline to heightened global competition. EU wheat exports are forecast at 32.5 million tons this season, up from 27.9 million tons previously, while Australia is projected to ship 27 million tons versus 21.3 million tons last season. Argentina is also expanding export volumes, collectively eroding Russia’s traditional price-discount advantage in key destination markets.
Turkey’s Grain Import Dynamics
Turkey’s grain imports accelerated sharply in November 2025, reaching 1,368,700 tons worth $371.2 million, a 72% increase from October in both volume and value. Wheat dominated receipts at 898,400 tons, with Russia supplying 827,500 tons, or 92% of Turkey’s wheat purchases. Barley imports totaled 147,900 tons and corn imports 242,600 tons, underscoring Turkey’s broad-based demand across major cereals.
Russian Agricultural Exports to Sudan
Russian agricultural exports to Sudan rose 2.3 times in 2025 to 1.7 million tons, valued at nearly $410 million. Wheat overwhelmingly dominated the flow, generating more than $408 million in export revenue. Complementary shipments included yeast worth $570,000 and flour worth $260,000, highlighting gradual expansion beyond raw grain into value-added products.
Market Analysis and Logistics Implications
The near-18% decline in Russian grain exports signals tougher conditions for Black Sea suppliers as EU and Southern Hemisphere origins step up shipments. Russian wheat is being forced to trade at minimal or no discount to European prices, compressing its traditional competitive edge in price-sensitive destinations. Nonetheless, Turkey’s strong November buying confirms that core Black Sea demand remains intact, with Russia retaining dominant share in that market.
Growing sales to African destinations such as Sudan offer alternative outlets but still represent modest volumes compared with Russia’s primary export corridors. For logistics coordinators, softer export volumes may relieve congestion at Russian ports and improve vessel turnaround times. For traders, the focus shifts to price spreads and freight economics as Russian exporters defend market share against increasingly aggressive EU, Australian, and Argentine offers.
Grain Export Volume Snapshot
| Exporter / Importer | Commodity | Period | Volume (tons) | Value (USD) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia (exports) | All major grains | H1 2025/26 MY | 33,900,000 | n/a | -17.6% YoY |
| Russia (exports) | Wheat | H1 2025/26 MY | 27,900,000 | n/a | -14.0% YoY |
| Russia (exports) | Barley | H1 2025/26 MY | 3,200,000 | n/a | -27.9% YoY |
| Russia (exports) | Corn | H1 2025/26 MY | 1,800,000 | n/a | -11.7% YoY |
| EU (projected exports) | Wheat | 2025/26 season | 32,500,000 | n/a | Up from 27,900,000 |
| Australia (projected exports) | Wheat | 2025/26 season | 27,000,000 | n/a | Up from 21,300,000 |
| Turkey (imports) | All grains | Nov 2025 | 1,368,700 | $371,200,000 | +72% MoM |
| Turkey (imports) | Wheat (from Russia) | Nov 2025 | 827,500 | n/a | 92% of wheat imports |
| Sudan (from Russia) | All agricultural products | 2025 | 1,700,000 | $410,000,000 | 2.3x YoY |
| Sudan (from Russia) | Wheat | 2025 | n/a | >$408,000,000 | Dominant share |
Market Sentiment: Bearish for Russian export volumes; Neutral for freight demand as softer Russian volumes are partly offset by increased flows from competing origins and resilient demand in key import markets.
Source: Market Data
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