- USDA lifts global wheat output: 2025/26 global wheat production raised by 4.36 million tonnes to 842.17 million tonnes, led by larger Russian and Argentine crops.
- Exports edge higher: Global wheat exports forecast up to 219.76 million tonnes, with stronger Argentine shipments offsetting cuts to EU and Ukraine.
- Stocks build: Global ending stocks increased by 3.38 million tonnes to 278.25 million tonnes, adding a mildly bearish tone to fundamentals.
- Black Sea outlook: Neutral to slightly bearish for Black Sea wheat, as higher Russian supply and rising stocks pressure prices despite reduced Ukrainian export capacity.
USDA Wheat Production Revisions
The USDA’s January WASDE report raised global wheat production for the 2025/26 marketing year to 842.17 million tonnes, a 4.36 million tonne increase versus December. Upgrades were concentrated in Argentina and Russia, while other major exporters were left unchanged.
| Region | 2025/26 Wheat Production (Mt) | Change vs Dec (Mt) |
|---|---|---|
| World | 842.17 | +4.36 |
| Russia | 89.5 | +2.0 |
| Argentina | 27.5 | +3.5 |
| United States | 54.0 | 0.0 |
| European Union | 144.0 | 0.0 |
| Canada | ~40.0 | 0.0 |
| Australia | 37.0 | 0.0 |
| Ukraine | 23.0 | 0.0 |
Export Outlook
Global wheat exports for 2025/26 were revised up by 1.05 million tonnes to 219.76 million tonnes. Higher Argentine export availability was partly offset by cuts to EU and Ukrainian export projections, while Russian export volumes were held steady.
| Exporter | 2025/26 Wheat Exports (Mt) | Change vs Dec (Mt) |
|---|---|---|
| World | 219.76 | +1.05 |
| Russia | 44.0 | 0.0 |
| Argentina | 16.0 | +1.5 |
| European Union | 32.5 | -0.5 |
| Ukraine | 14.0 | -0.5 |
| United States | 24.5 | 0.0 |
| Canada | 28.0 | 0.0 |
| Australia | 27.0 | 0.0 |
Ending Stocks and Market Balance
Global ending stocks were lifted by 3.38 million tonnes to 278.25 million tonnes, reflecting higher inventory projections across several key exporters. The build in stocks adds to the overall comfort in global supply and leans modestly bearish for prices.
| Region | 2025/26 Ending Stocks (Mt) | Change vs Dec (Mt) |
|---|---|---|
| World | 278.25 | +3.38 |
| Russia | 14.5 | +1.5 |
| Argentina | 6.0 | +1.5 |
| United States | 25.2 | +0.7 |
| European Union | 14.2 | +0.5 |
Black Sea Market Implications
The updated balance sheet is neutral to slightly bearish for Black Sea wheat. Larger Russian production and higher stocks point to stronger domestic supply, even as official export projections are held at 44 million tonnes. Reduced Ukrainian export potential to 14 million tonnes underscores ongoing production and logistical constraints, which could marginally support Russian competitiveness in traditional Black Sea demand outlets. However, the combination of higher global output and expanding stocks keeps overall pricing pressure tilted to the downside.
Source: Market Data
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